The Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots in Week 5, for Sunday Night Football. It's a matchup loaded with storylines: Stefon Diggs returns to Buffalo, Drake Maye is forced to face the Josh Allen comparisons, and the AFC East battle could be either over or just beginning. It's a veritable smorgasbord of possibilities.
Truly, it's the biggest game of the season for Buffalo since Week 1. But how do things play out, with two teams that have changed considerably since they last met? How do old friends fare as new foes? We have our predictions, let's share them.
Prediction #1 - Josh Allen outduels Drake Maye
The comparisons between Drake Maye and Josh Allen have been fun, but they're unsubstantiated. A few statistical similarities to a time before Josh Allen rose to prominence, a few tough rushes, and suddenly the league's talking heads find it profitable to act as though it's an honest comparison. It's not.
The truth of the matter is that, so far this season, these two offenses have only one thing in common- Passing production. It's a deliberately specific statistic. The Patriots average 1.8 passing touchdowns per game, the same as the Bills. The Buffalo Bills average 8.1 yards per pass attempt, as the Patriots average 8.0, to applause. We won't discredit them, Drake Maye has done well, but there is more information available that contextualizes the difference between these two units.
Ignoring the obvious and cliched 'eye test', the stats back up a far more nuanced game from Josh Allen than his counterpart. Since the beginning of 2024, Allen's focus has been on limiting the negative plays, resulting in fewer sacks taken and dramatically fewer turnovers. Maye's 13 sacks taken to Allen's 7 are indicative of that, not to mention Allen's remarkably efficient 2024 season resulting in his MVP award.
Drake Maye has been impressive, but the matchup favours Allen too. The New England defense has surrendered a 71.2% completion percentage (29th in the NFL) to the Bills' 62.14% (8th), and the Patriots allow a 87.5% red zone TD rate (31st) to Buffalo's 63.64 (21st). With the egregious assumption that these two quarterbacks are the same, Buffalo has the clear edge.
New England also has a -0.8 turnover margin per game, compared to the Bills' +0.8, making for a 1.6 turnover difference right off the bat. Combine all this with Buffalo's 4.9 yards per rush (7th) to the Patriots 3.9 (24th), and this makes for a game Maye has to win on his own. Josh Allen gets to play a worse defense, and he get to do it with six extra seasons of NFL experience in his pocket. Maye is definitively good, but he's not ready.
Prediction #2 - Buffalo starts the halves strong
The Buffalo Bills are predictable, in a great way. When they find something that works, they do it to death. Their opening drive scripts have been one such thing. No team in the NFL has scored a touchdown on every opening drive this season, except Buffalo.
Buffalo does something similar in the second half, with the 5.8 3rd quarter points on average, fifth-most in the league. New England struggles there, with only 3.8 points. Getting the work done right out of the gate is Buffalo's prerogative, and they'll be sure to emphasize it once again.
Prediction #3 - Final score
There are few games in the league this week with the intrigue of the Bills and Patriots. The return of Stefon Diggs to the place where he played his best ball, the AFC East title fight, and more all add to an emotional matchup.
But, when in doubt, we go back to the basics. After shaking the Magic 8 Ball of statistics, all signs point to the Bills.