Six short weeks ago, the 1-0 Buffalo Bills went on the road having narrowly survived the lowly Arizona Cardinals, to visit the Miami Dolphins fresh off their strong win against their fellow AFC powerhouse, the Jacksonville Jaguars. It's been a long six weeks. As the smoldering wreckages of the Dolphins and Jaguars seasons lay in the background, the AFC has reshaped itself and once again the Bills are at the forefront.
The Much-Changed Miami
A large part of the Dolphins' downfall could be credited to loss of Tua Tagovailoa, but it's not so simple. In his absence, an offense featuring Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Devon Achane, and many others failed to score more than 15 points in any game, an averaged only 10 per contest. It was the same 10 points they scored against Buffalo in Week 2; Back then, Tua was still healthy. It's a criticism of their coaching to be unable to utilize those players in any meaningful capacity through four complete games. Two of those games came against the Tennessee Titans (lost 31 - 10) and Seattle Seahawks (lost 24 - 12), opponents whom Buffalo recently thrashed by a combined margin of 45 these last two weeks, whilst allowing only 10 points per game, a mark the Dolphins are clearly comfortable with.
These are the most basic metrics for success, but they paint a picture that leaves the Buffalo Bills very comfortable this Sunday.
Prediction #1 - The James Cook Show, 2.0
No disrespect to Ray Davis, but James Cook brings a lot to the table in this matchup that is well-suited to the Miami Dolphins' defense. Cook has 303 total yards and 5 total TDs in 5 games on only 53 touches against Miami in the regular season. His development as a runner between the tackles has really broadened his skillset, and the new effectiveness of the Bills offensive line to enforce their will in a power-run game will create holes the size of mountains in the Dolphins' weakened interior defensive line. Cook can be expected to produce at will on Sunday, which will only help the Bills passing game by the time the third quarter rolls around.
Prediction #2 - Upright And Throwing Deep
The Miami Dolphins are largely healthy on offense now, but their secondary has some holes. Safety Jevon Holland is doubtful and not expected to play, and cornerback Kader Kohou is out. With those players missing, the deep third of the field is opened substantially. The Buffalo Bills offensive line has given Allen some time to pass this season; The Dolphins pass-rush has not been so effective that Week 9 should be any different. They have only nine sacks on the season, second-worst in the NFL, and the Bills have been sacked less than any other team. It stands to reason that long-developing passes and deep shots are on the table.
Often we cite Josh Allen as a runner against the Dolphins, as he's proven time and time again that he's going to take advantage of their inability to bring him down. That was a feature of their former defense, as he often rushes due to a lack of open players against a competent Miami secondary. Now, that will not be the case. Expect Josh Allen to routinely target players 20+ yards downfield, and connect on at least a few.
Prediction #3 - Final Score
We won't disrespect the Miami Dolphins by expecting a blowout. They're a division rival who were half a game away from winning the AFC East last season. Still, much has changed. As they assess their goals for this season after a dismal 2-5 start, this may seem like it's do-or-die time to turn the year around. Unfortunately, since 1990 only 10 teams with a 2-5 start have managed to squeak into a playoff spot. Do we believe the Miami Dolphins of 2024 are one of them? The Buffalo Bills have a significant advantage at this point and should be perfectly capable of putting the Dolphins aside and taking a stranglehold on the AFC East.