The Buffalo Bills host the Denver Broncos to kick off the Sunday stretch of Super Wild Card weekend. It's a meeting of two teams in different places. The Bills shocked the NFL by securing the #2 seed when many didn't expect them to make the playoffs at all. The Broncos have stunned too, as their incredible defense and surprising quarterback play have turned what looked like a rebuild year into a competitive one; perhaps these two aren't that different after all.
They are, however, in different parts of the same journey. Buffalo has taken their mobile QB with growing pains and turned him into a year-after-year contender. The Broncos are finishing the first year of that journey, but the future looks bright. For now, one of those stories must come to a close, but which one, and how?
Prediction #1 - Ty Johnson's Big Day
It may be controversial, but one of the most important players out on the field for the Bills this weekend in third-string running back Ty Johnson. Why Ty? A valid question, but one that those who watch the Bills' offense will know the answer to. No player on the Bills picks up the blitz like Ty Johnson. His role on the field in passing downs is as often that of a blocker as it is a receiver. Few teams send extra rushers at the quarterback as often as the Denver Broncos do, with a 29.5% blitz rate. As a result, Buffalo can expect to rely on Johnson.
He won't just be blocking, Buffalo won't limit him to that. Johnson has amassed 497 total yards this season, despite primarily taking the field in those passing situations. Of those yards, 284 are receiving on only 18 catches. Ty averages 15.8 yards per catch, and has three receiving touchdowns this season for his hard work. A threat in unexpected ways, expect him to flourish this weekend.
Prediction #2 - Denver Turns Pass-Happy
The Buffalo Bills have done one thing consistently over their five consecutive AFC East titles. They've defended the pass well, and let teams run over them instead. It may not sound balanced, but Buffalo consistently forcing the opposing offense to get their yards on the ground, or on short throws, creates more opportunity for error. The longer the drive is, the greater the odds of an offensive mistake, which is why the Bills lead the NFL in turnover differential.
The cost is that the offense can run the ball against the Buffalo defensive line. It's an acceptable cost, especially when playing an opponent without an effective run game, like the Broncos.
Denver has failed to produce consistently in the run game all season. They've had brief moments of great success, but nothing more. The Broncos have the 9th-fewest rushing scores in the league this season (12), and rarely threaten a defense with their ability on the ground.
By selling out against the pass, Buffalo can focus on stopping what Denver seems to be actually good at. If Buffalo can secure an early lead, forcing the Broncos into passing situations, the Bills won't need to think about the run game at all.
Prediction #3 - Final Score
Buffalo is the better team and expected to win, and it's no wonder as to why. Still, the Broncos are a wily team with an inexperienced QB and a deadly defensive line, with a scary secondary to boot. They're tough to predict in the passing game, and will make you pay if you don't start wearing their defense down early. This is a playoff game against an opponent that deserves to be here, 7th-seeded or otherwise.
Regardless, the Buffalo Bills had secured the #2 seed with over a week of football left to play. They've been resting and preparing for this, and they're healthier than they've been entering the playoffs since the early 90s. This is Buffalo's game to lose, and they'll opt to win.