Super Wild Card Weekend is coming up and the Buffalo Bills are set to host the 7th-seed Denver Broncos. Buffalo faced off against 14 different opponents this season, but they've yet to make the acquaintance of the 2024/5 Broncos. So, who are they? What do they do best? What are their weaknesses? Let's get to know the opponent.
The 2024 Denver Broncos
Expectations heading into 2024 were low for Denver. Coming off a monumentally disappointing season, then parting with Russell Wilson at great cost, and setting the franchise back half a decade, head coach Sean Payton was expected to be on the chopping block. Then, he got lucky. Oregon QB Bo Nix fell all the way to 12th overall, when Denver snagged him.
It may not have felt like a genius move at the time, just one of desperation by a front office with their jobs on the line, but early this season things started to look up. His play went from that of a B-tier rookie to a qualified NFL starter with an underdog case for Rookie of the Year. Though he's still a young player going through growing pains, he's shown far more than anyone thought they'd see at this point in his career.
Now, they enter the postseason, having clinched their spot against the Kansas City Chiefs' reserves. It was a shockingly close race, as they'd been runaway favorites for the 7th-seed with three weeks remaining. Late defeats of 34-27 by the L.A. Chargers and 30-24 by the Cincinnati Bengals put a damper on their return to the playoffs. Still, they squeaked in by the skin of their teeth. The Broncos will have to prove they're deserving of a spot in this season's tight playoff group.
Their Strengths
The Denver Broncos are far from a powerhouse, but they have a versatile passing game that can make defenses sweat. Nix rushed for 430 yards this season, and has proven to make plays happen when things break down; It's a trait Buffalo Bills fans are familiar with. As a passer, he displays a rounded game. He's thrown 29 touchdowns this season, and ran another four in on his own. All this is to say, Bo Nix hasn't been your typical forgettable rookie. His season has come to a head and he's averaged three TDs per game for his last four games. He's aided by a capable crew of receivers led by Courtland Sutton.
Their greatest boon by far, however, is their indomitable defense. They're coming off a season in which they pulled down 63 sacks, the 14th-most of any team in NFL history. They get to the quarterback at an incredible rate, and force him to make play after play under pressure.
Their secondary, also, has very few holes to poke at. Patrick Surtain II leads a very talented unit. The coverage is sticky and a long list of great receivers have disappeared off the stat sheet against Denver this season. Combined with their line play, the Broncos also forced 25 turnovers this season, 7th most in the league.
Their Weaknesses
The Bills have one of the few passing defenses that's close to par with the Denver Broncos. It's a good thing too, because Buffalo typically sells out to stop the pass, and let's the opposition kill them slowly and consistently on the ground. It's a strategy that works well for the Bills, but it works better when playing a team like Denver. The Broncos don't have the strong run game needed to outmaneuver the Buffalo defense. Averaging only 4.1 yards per carry, fourth least in the NFL, the Broncos would need an exceptional day to beat the Bills weekly defense.
Denver may have some great sack production, but it's largely due to sacrifice from the back seven. The Broncos run a 3-4 defense and blitz at one of the highest rates of any team this season. We won't deny it's effectiveness, but when they fail to bring down the quarterback quickly, they are vulnerable to open windows in many areas of the field. They often need the extra pass-rusher to actually bring down the quarterback, and their pressure rate plummets when they only send four.
They'll need to find a way to get Josh Allen on the floor without losing coverage downfield, which is a tougher task than any they faced in 2024. The most evasive QB in the NFL will bring his best against them.
Lastly, the Broncos close to the season could be indicative of a defense regression. After Week 12, they were third in average yards allowed with 296, and allowed only 16.8 points per game - second best. Before their final Week 18 game against the resting Kansas City Chiefs, they were 15th in yards allowed and had dropped to fifth in points allowed with 19.4 per game. Perhaps it's injury trouble, or perhaps the Denver defense is on the ropes. There's a full season of film for the Bills offense to study. We'll find out soon enough.