Week 1 is finally here, as the Buffalo Bills take on the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football. It's been a long offseason for the Bills, but even longer for the Ravens. Baltimore's last game was their defeat at Buffalo's hands in the divisional round of the playoffs. It was followed by Lamar Jackson's runner-up spot, as Josh Allen won his first MVP award.
Over seven months of stewing on these storylines has resulted in one of the most coveted season-openers of the past decade.
But what happens next? Do the Ravens remember how to stop the Bills offense, like they did last September, or will their mistakes get the better of them again, like they did in the playoffs? Does Buffalo have a new plan for dealing with Derrick Henry, or are they in trouble at stopping him? Let's make some predictions.
Prediction #1 - Josh Allen lets loose
Josh Allen has played in 111 career regular season games; There are too many iconic showings to count. From his rookie-season of growing pains (and having flashes) to his shattering performance against the 11-1 2024 Detroit Lions, Josh Allen's best games come in moments of utter necessity. There is no greater motivator for Allen's heroics than simply meeting the moment.
The second-best motivator is desperation. On Sunday Night Football, the Buffalo Bills have to face a defense that allowed only 3.6 yards per carry for the 2024 season. It's the best mark in the league, and there has been little roster turnover since then.
They did this in part by stopping the run early, scoring quickly, and forcing opponents into passing to try and make a comeback. We prove that by not only reviewing every game, but by checking the stats. Baltimore saw only 383 rushing attempts last season, good for second-fewest in the league. Teams couldn't afford to waste time running into their brick wall.
In order to not only survive but beat the Baltimore Ravens, Josh Allen has to pass early, often, and all night. It isn't going to be the gun-show we've dreamed of, the Ravens only allowed 6.1 yards per pass attempt last season, but it will be the Allen show on Sunday. The Buffalo Bills will have no choice but to put the ball in his hands in every area of the field.
Prediction #2 - Ravens double down on run game
In Week 4, 2024, it wasn't Lamar Jackson's arm that shredded the Buffalo Bills, it was the Baltimore Ravens' dominant run game. With little done to improve the Ravens' receiving outside of Zay Flowers, and the massive success of this recent game plan, Baltimore can be expected to try and run through the Bills' defense once again. For context, here are their rushing stats from that game, per ESPN.
Rush Att. | Rush Yds | Yds/Att. | Rush TD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
D. Henry | 24 | 199 | 8.3 | 1 |
L. Jackson | 6 | 54 | 9.0 | 1 |
J. Hill | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
Total: | 34 | 271 | 8.0 | 2 |
As you can see, the 2024 matchup featured a large volume of rushes with remarkably dominant consistency and efficiency. It's something the Baltimore Ravens leaned on all season, and it works.
In a game where Lamar Jackson had only 18 pass attempts, just 13 completions, the Bills were totally outplayed, blown out 35-10. Those pass attempts, too, were incredibly efficient. It was all the more impressive as Buffalo sold out to stop the Ravens run game, and failed.
The Buffalo Bills got the last laugh, beating the Baltimore Ravens 27-25 in the divisional found of the 2024/25 playoffs. It wasn't as easy a victory as the Ravens had, and Buffalo benefitted massively from two recovered fumbles and an interception.
Baltimore kept the game close despite their blunders; Another efficient night of running the ball against a defense with few answers for it. Had the Bills not capitalized on turnovers to take the lead, the Ravens would have kept running to victory.
The Baltimore Ravens have realized what works against the Buffalo Bill. Keep the ball out of Josh Allen's hands. You run the ball, eat the clock, and dare them to try and stop you.
It hasn't worked out well for the Bills in their recent meetings. Still, Buffalo has made a number of pickups for their defensive line this offseason: Drafting DE Landon Jackson, DTs TJ Sanders and Deone Walker, and signing DE Joey Bosa.
Those moves bring some hope, but they're completely unproven against meaningful competition. The powerful Ravens run game will be out in force on Sunday Night Football, and it's up to these new Bills to stop it.
Prediction #3 - Final score
This is as tough a prediction as analysts will have to make all season, made all the more difficult by the offseason of uncertainty and unquantifiable information. No algorithm will spit out the answer to this one. The tape tells us we're in for a long, hard-fought battle, with two entirely different offenses and defenses taking swings.
Based on their recent history, the Bills and Ravens are ideal opponents, but there's a clear advantage. Baltimore are a rushing powerhouse with the defense to match. Though they lost their last game to Buffalo, turnovers were a decisive factor; Turnovers are largely random, and unpredictable. Buffalo has the reigning MVP, and an uphill climb to start the season.
Prediction: Buffalo Bills fall short at home, 31 - 27, to the Baltimore Ravens.