It's established fact that Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are dominant forces in the modern NFL. Since 2018, only one team has won more games than Buffalo (regular + postseason), but these Baltimore Ravens are a close third. Possibly the tightest contest of the 2024 playoffs, these two titans are as closely matched as any over the past seven years.
Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are the leading MVP candidates this season. Both are some of the most prolific quarterbacks of the modern era.
So, what separates the two franchises? What stat or history can we look to to see how this Sunday plays out? As a cold wind draws itself to Orchard Park, we find one more area where the Buffalo Bills excel. Expected conditions are relatively dry, but frigid, with temperatures falling into the single digits (8°F, -13°C).
Where The Buffalo Roam
In the Josh Allen era, the Buffalo Bills are 12-2 when the temperature drops below freezing (32°F, 0°C). Their point differential under these conditions is a whopping +167, showing the dominance of the Bills in conditions they have to play in regularly. Josh Allen leads quarterbacks in touchdowns per game when playing below freezing, with 2.86 per game. When Buffalo plays in these circumstances more often than the rest of the league, they do gain a minute advantage.
When hosting the San Francisco 49ers at the beginning of December, Buffalo blew them out in a 35-10 rout, benching starters late in the game. They did the same just a few seasons ago against the New England Patriots in the wild card round, for the NFL's first ever perfect offensive game back in 2022. There are plenty of examples of Buffalo controlling the ball and scoring consistently in frozen weather.
Lamar Jackson, like most QBs in NFL history, has rarely played in sub-zero weather, andnever colder than 27°F. The Baltimore Ravens are 3-1 behind him when they play in the cold, but they've yet to experience this type of cold.
As the sample size for most players below freezing is small, but Josh Allen's large sample size shows success, we're left with questions. Does the cold truly impact the passing game? Is there a significant relation between cold weather and a decline in passing efficiency, or is the true correlation actually for poor weather and wet conditions?
That data overlaps significantly; rarely is it wet in warm weather. One thing we do know is that Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are playing at home this weekend, and they'll be prepared. The Baltimore Ravens might not be.
""I know Buffalo, I think the field will be heated, right?""Chris Horton, Ravens ST Coordinator
Special teams coordinator Chris Horton on the field conditions in Buffalo: pic.twitter.com/K2GbcnwPmy
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) January 16, 2025
The field will certainly be heated, but not in the way Horton expects.