Buffalo Bills: The race is on for #1 seed in AFC down the final stretch

The Buffalo Bills have fought valiantly to earn the chance at securing the #1 seed in the AFC, and that coveted week off before the divisional round. There's still plenty of season left, however, and a lot has to go right for the Bills to wind up with the AFC's top spot for the first time since 1993. Surrounded on all sides by fellow competitors, we're going to take a look at the remainder of the NFL season for the Bills, as well as their rivals. The race for #1 is on.

A Tight Race

The Bills are far from alone in their quest, as the walls close in on all sides. In total, there are six realistic competitors for the #1 seed in the AFC. Let's look at the current playoff picture.

Beyond this list, all teams have suffered five or more losses and are considered non-contenders for the top spot. We'll review each contending team's remaining schedule, and confirm any tiebreakers with the Bills, to find out how Buffalo can expect to advance.

Work To Be Done

Before the Buffalo Bills can consider themselves the true heir to the 2024 AFC throne, they have to do the work. Six games remain, and winning them all isn't an easy task. Things can go wrong, and they have plenty of opponents who pose a threat of their own. Let's get into it.

Head-To-Head

A head-to-head tiebreaker is the lynchpin of all NFL tiebreaking measures. When in doubt, it's the first item checked off the list, and Buffalo has a direct answer to that question against three of their rivals. With a win against the Kansas City Chiefs this season, and losses against the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo is in the middle of a dramatic group. They have no head-to-head record against the L.A. Chargers or Pittsburgh Steelers, so we go down the list. The next tiebreaker is Conference Record.

Calculating the tiebreaker by win percentage leaves Buffalo in the middle of the pack, behind the Steelers, who also only have two losses. As of now, Pittsburgh takes a tie, and the Chargers fall flat.

So, what needs to be done to turn all this around and push the Bills to the top spot? Here are the Bills' current leads and deficits opposing contenders, showing what direct win totals must be necessary for the Bills to secure #1 seed. The number includes the wins and losses necessary to secure the top seed and the factors in any tiebreakers in the event. The number indicated states the team's remaining necessary record in relation to the Buffalo, to allow a one-game lead outright in any situation. For example, K.C. must have a record worse than Buffalo's on the remainder of the season, by one or more, to allow Buffalo to lead them on a tiebreaker.

Remaining Schedule

Buffalo may have the least competitive division in the AFC, but there are three tough matchups on the schedule that can throw a wrench in the works. Still, their schedule is one of the easier remaining ones, per tankathon.

Following this bye week, the Bills will need to come out swinging. They face the NFC's reigning champions in the San Francisco 49ers, followed by the ever-competitive L.A. Rams and then the 'pride' of the NFC North, the Detroit Lions. Detroit is arguably the best team in the NFL this season, and by far the toughest game on the Bills' schedule. Then, three consecutive AFC East divisional games allows Buffalo finish off the season as smoothly as possible. The Jets and Patriots should all be eliminated from contention by that point, as the Bills have run away with the AFC East and both franchises have succumbed to their inevitable rebuilds.

For the purpose of this exercise, and out of respect for the competitive teams in this race, games against non-competing teams shall be 'expected wins' and assumed as such, whereas games against competitors will remain variable. Buffalo's only remaining games outside of those AFC East matchups fall to NFC teams, mitigating the value of a loss. Still, until Kansas City loses two more, Buffalo cannot afford to lose even one in this heated race.

Kansas City Chiefs

Head-To-Head

Speaking of Kansas City, we'll start with the big one. Buffalo will own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Kansas City Chiefs through to the end of the season. That is the leading tiebreaker and thus no other tiebreaking procedures will apply. For Buffalo to hold position over the Chiefs, they simply need to end the season with a record equal to or better than them. That may be easier said than done.

Remaining Schedule

According to tankathon.com, the Chiefs have an average remaining strength of schedule, but it features two significant hiccups. Hiccup #1: Of the remaining seven teams, four of them are current AFC playoff teams, and three of them are direct competition for a high spot in the playoff race. There are three of those 'expected wins', and four games they'll need to bring their best for. The last three weeks are all current AFC playoff teams.

Hiccup #2: There is a stretch when the Chiefs must play three games in only 11 days. Following their Sunday game against the Browns in Week 15, Kansas City must play the Houston Texans on the next Saturday, before turning right around and playing the Pittsburgh Steelers only four days later on Christmas Day, a Wednesday. It's a tall order. They're not the only rival team with a tight turnaround window over this stretch, but it's an issue that doesn't affect the Buffalo Bills; Buffalo plays exclusively on Sundays for the rest of the season, with no short weeks.

If the 'expected wins' are just that, then there are four chances for Kansas City to drop the one game minimum they have to lose in order for Buffalo to overtake them, or the multiple needed should the Bills lose games of their own.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Head-To-Head

As of this moment, the Steelers own the tiebreaker against Buffalo on Conference Record. With only three games left for Buffalo in the AFC, all against non-competing division rivals, the Bills can end the season with a tidy 10-2 AFC record. Pittsburgh is currently 5-1, with six games left in their AFC slate. If they manage to lose only one of their matchups (Cle x2, Cin x2, Bal, KC), and remain tied with Buffalo, the next tiebreaker kicks in: Record against common opponents. Buffalo and Pittsburgh are both 2-1 in those games. Buffalo plays the Jets again, and Pittsburgh plays the Chiefs and Ravens. If Buffalo beats the Jets, Pittsburgh would need to beat both teams to win the tiebreaker, as any loss would lose them their position.

Remaining Schedule

We have a long way to go before those tiebreakers come into play though, as the Steelers have an uncertain remaining schedule.

Aside from two matchups with the Cleveland Browns over the next three weeks, they play almost exclusively competitive teams. The Cincinnati Bengals, whilst unlikely to stay in the fight for a playoff spot much longer, are still top six in points per game, and their electric passing game leads the NFL in passing TDs and yards. Joe Burrow is handling himself like an MVP candidate, despite their record.

On top of that issue they suffer, as Kansas City does, from a Christmas stint of three games in only 11 days. In that stretch, they face the Eagles (8-2), Ravens (7-4), and Chiefs (9-1), the toughest slate for any team in the NFL all season. To finish on top with two short weeks will be tough.

Whilst their statistical strength of schedule may seem average due to the Bengals' tough start to the season, they have five remaining games that offer an actual competitive matchup. With only two 'expected wins', they have a deeply uncertain path ahead of them, one which will require besting multiple AFC title competitors to have a shot at the #1 seed. Can they manage to beat the Chiefs, a necessary act to secure the #1 seed, as well as however many other games needed to pass Buffalo? It's no easy task, despite their 8-2 record.

Houston Texans

Head-To-Head

The Houston Texans beat the Bills head-to-head in Week 5, and thus own the tiebreaker.

Remaining Schedule

The Texans, like the Bills, have only six games remaining and benefit from a late bye week. On top of that, their strength of schedule remaining is among the league's softest. Per our criteria, there are only two games remaining for the Texans that can't be chalked up to 'expected wins'.

For a shot at the AFC's #1 seed, the Houston Texans will need to beat the Chiefs and Ravens, as well as get some help from around the league. We've been doling out 'expected wins', and Houston applies for four of them, but bear in mind that they have only one win over a team with a winning record this season (Buffalo). They have lost to every other team they've played who are above .500 in the win column.

Still, as current contenders the Texans are awarded their expected wins, leaving two major games that they'd have to sweep to have a chance at #1 overall. The formula for Houston is simple: Win out and hope for the best. Unfortunately, they'll have to work very hard for it; The toughest two games left on their schedule, against Kansas City and Baltimore, are only four days away from one another, coming off the back of a short week prior.

L.A. Chargers

Head-To-Head

The Buffalo Bills and L.A. Chargers don't play this season, and so the head-to-head tiebreaker does not apply. The second tiebreaker, Conference Record, has Buffalo at an advantage with a 7-2 record over the Chargers' 5-2. Buffalo's remaining AFC games are against the Patriots, twice, and the Jets, but L.A. has it tougher. The Ravens, Chiefs, and Broncos are all part of their five remaining AFC clashes. They would likely have to win out in order to equal or pass Buffalo in this metric. If the two sides are in fact tied still, and their records are the same, the third tiebreaker would apply. For their record against common opponents, Buffalo is 3-1 with two games remaining, both against New England. The Chargers are 1-2, with three remaining against the Chiefs, Ravens, and Patriots. This favours Buffalo, as they likely come out with the tiebreaker after all procedures are considered.

Remaining Schedule

The struggles of the Houston Texans aren't unique. For the Chargers to take their shot at the #1 seed, winning all seven remaining games on their schedule is still not a guaranteed chance. They would need Buffalo to stumble twice, beat Kansas City, then have K.C. lose to one other team and also have a worse divisional record. Another tall order, but not mathematically impossible yet.

Like we said, winning all their games is their only reasonable chance at the #1 seed, and that too is a mountain to be climbed. If we chalk up three 'expected wins' against the Falcons, Patriots, and Raiders, L.A. has four tough matchups to sweep on their way to the top.

Whilst they don't suffer from the same Christmas Day curse as the rest of the competitors, they won't have any rest along the way either. We'll know long before Christmas if they're still in the running, and the odds aren't good.

Baltimore Ravens

Head-To-Head

The Baltimore Ravens beat the Bills head-to-head in Week 4, owning the tiebreaker between these two teams.

Remaining Schedule

According to remaining schedule strength, no AFC competitor has it worse than Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. Though they have only six remaining opponents, three of them are fellow AFC title contenders and one is fighting for first in the NFC.

To make matters worse, they too are burdened by the holidays. Only three days sit between their must-win matchup against the Steelers, and their contention-deciding bout against the Houston Texans. Even if they did catch the Steelers, who are two games ahead with the current tiebreaker in-hand, they'd need to beat them on divisional record to advance. Pittsburgh is currently 1-0, whereas the Ravens are 2-2. They'd need a great deal of help from the Bengals and Browns in order to close that gap.

Assuming they did, in fact, take that AFC North top spot, and earn the right to compete for the AFC's #1 seed, things don't clear up. The Bills would still need to lose two more games, and the Chiefs would have to lose 3, to even begin the tiebreaking procedures for a three-way tie between these contenders. The Ravens' odds of winning that situation are slim-to-none. Much like the Chargers, Baltimore has had one too many costly mistakes, now coming back to bite them.

The Must-Watch Games

We spent a great deal of time covering the entire AFC field. Let's get back to basics, for the Buffalo Bills fans reading. Outside of the current remaining Bills games, which obviously hold the weight of their season, there are a large number of matchups that will determine the AFC playoff race. Based on our research here, these games will have the biggest impact on the race for the #1 seed.

Each game on this list provides a high-level 'loss opportunity' for a major contender in the AFC title race. With every loss by another contender, Buffalo's case is made easier, but the Bills will still have to win several tough games to earn their place atop the heap. For now, however, the #1 seed in the AFC is as close as it's ever been.

A Photo Finish

We didn't make those win assumptions for no reason; They provide a clearer picture. If the teams we believe to be contenders play well against those who we believe are not, as they should, then a mere three wins separate the cream of the crop from the second-placed Wild Card team. That's a shockingly ordinary amount of variability for an NFL season. Those unassumed games are more than capable of making all the difference in this playoff field.

In a stretch where the teams not named Buffalo play each other with remarkable consistency, the Bills are one loss behind the Chiefs. Pittsburgh has a path to the #1 seed on their own, but a very tough road to get there. They are one of only two teams with a chance to control their own destiny, the other being Kansas City; Their Week 17 matchup could well be for all the marbles. Houston is in good position to finish strong, but may have already made the worst of their chances. The L.A. Chargers and Baltimore Ravens are in a similar boat, just too far behind the best of their divisions to own their path. Still, one minor slip or fall from either Kansas City or Pittsburgh lets them back in.

It'll be a bumpy road to the finish, but Buffalo's chance remains just as good as any.

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