Buffalo Bills: Solving the Curtis Samuel problem heading into Week 6

When the Buffalo Bills signed free agent receiver Curtis Samuel to a 3-year, $24m contract in March, it was an odd investment. To many, he was the replacement for Gabriel Davis, filling the WR2 role in exceptional capacity, but the fit was unusual. Then, in April, the Bills traded Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans. Suddenly, it was clear; Curtis Samuel wasn't the Gabe Davis replacement, he was the new WR1. Five games in, he feels like he's anything but.

An Unproductive Start

Through 5 games, Curtis Samuel has been targeted 13 times, hauling in 9 of them for 48 yards. To highlight how unproductive that is, let's get serious. At the time of writing, he is tied 200th in the NFL in receiving yards. His biggest play was a 10-yard catch on a screen pass, his only significant catch of the year, against the Jacksonville Jaguars. It highlighted a 3-catch, 22-yard performance, his best of the year through 5 games. He has been on the field for 102 snaps, 35% of the time Buffalo has spent out there. Ty Johnson and Ray Davis, the Buffalo Bills' 2nd and 3rd-strong running backs, have taken 71 and 44 snaps respectively. Johnson has 103 total yards and 2 TDs on 10 rushes and 4 catches, and Davis has 93 total yards and a TD of his own.

Was Curtis Samuel not signed for his versatility? Did the Bills not spend the entire offseason drooling over the ways they wanted to use him in the backfield? Yet he's taken three handoffs for 6 total yards. His average depth of target is abysmal, and he's dropping in usage rate week over week. As he cedes from the lineup, we wonder exactly how the Bills envisioned his usage, because this simply cannot be it.

The Core Issue

It seems he's been relegated to 'The Screen Guy'. A $24m screen guy. But why? Surely, the only proven and capable pass-catcher on the roster with a track record of great success should have been the easiest to use? A speedy veteran with good vision. One of the most versatile talents in the room. It's inexcusable that Curtis Samuel isn't producing at an average rate, at bare minimum.

It seems that Joe Brady is still finding his sea legs. Though the offense was humming through the first three games, it was doing so without Samuel producing- He averaged only 27% of snaps per game through Week 3. No-one cared much, as the Buffalo Bills offense tore the doors off the opposition, but now they're stagnant. The funk must be bust. They have an 'easy' button on offense, and can't hit it. We can't fix everything for him, but perhaps Joe Brady can listen to the people just this once? Curtis Samuel can keep this game simple, and help get the team back to that 'Everybody Eats' mentality. Let's get him involved.

Solutions

To start, his speed and consistent production in many mediums over his career were solid reasons to bring him on, but he's been forbidden from using those talents. Open up the throttle.

Curtis Samuel can outpace so many defenders, and is a step faster than every linebacker in the NFL. Lining him up in the slot, in the bunch formations we've seen so far, is a usable grouping. Instead of him stepping back into the screen pass time-and-time again, call a crosser, and get him running away from linebackers towards the sidelines.

One of the successes of Brady's new offense has been his consistency in setting up downfield blockers; Short downfield passes with such help offer big-play opportunity for a player of Samuel's skillset. Even without the additional blocking, there's plenty of 5-12 yard passes to be made there. Josh Allen would need only make some fast throws, to avoid the pressure that bunch formations would invite on a blitz.

You'll find examples in Brian Daboll's usage of Isaiah McKenzie in the early 2020s. Check this video if you need a reminder of what that looks like.

Another facet of McKenzie's usage against the Patriots that you may notice in this clip is the utilization of the end-around. Samuel can still be used as a runner, in both the traditional and non-tradition sense. He was signed to be a swiss army knife, and getting the defense moving horizontally instead of vertically is a great way to develop downfield shots throughout a game, especially late. The offense must feed tendencies to a defense in order to then break those tendencies for big plays. Consistently turning his pre-snap motion into a handoff is a good way to get the defense to bite on a fake late in the game.

Ultimately, he doesn't need to be a focus of the offense in order to elevate the group. Dead-legging his short routes and staying low as a safety valve with upside is still an option, as Buffalo incorporates their running backs in to the offense in a significant way. A 4-yard reception in the flat is still a downfield completion that the Bills currently aren't getting from Curtis Samuel.

Playcalling like this doesn't immediately produce big hits. The NFL's natural defensive scheme is zone, and getting the ball in his hands on the run is the only way to ensure he has a chance at turning upfield- The standstill on screens simply hasn't been effective. Small gains would be expected, and safeties would be obligated to creep down towards the line of scrimmage to close those passing windows, leaving themselves vulnerable deep. It was working for Buffalo without Samuel as the season began; They need his help to get back there.

Or Else

If the Bills can figure this out, it would be akin to adding an entirely new receiver to the roster. Samuel has been a non-factor already. Wouldn't this be as good as trading for a new pass-catcher?

If Buffalo doesn't get the production out of Samuel, then they walk right out of one receiver nightmare and into another. Cutting Curtis Samuel in 2025 leaves the team with, at best, roughly $8m in dead cap, and more money dead in 2026. Keeping him consumes $10m in salary cap room. Barring a stunning trade, which would still leave Buffalo worse off, Samuel is on the roster for the next two seasons at minimum. Frankly, Joe Brady better figure this one out.

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