We have reached the halfway point of the regular season and the Buffalo Bills sit at 6-2. If you told me that this would be their record before the season started, it would not have surprised me, and I’d honestly be quite pleased. I’rd also assume that the Bills had at least a game or two lead in the AFC East. As we know, that is not the case.
There have certainly been a lot of bright spots so far this season, but with every team comes room for improvement. We have seen a few different versions of this Bills team so far, both through their play and their personnel, but one thing that has held steady throughout is that they are going to compete for a division title, and hopefully more.
Heading into their second game against Miami this weekend, I wanted to take a dive into the performance of each position group through eight games and see how the Bills grade out across the board. Let’s take a look at their midseason report card and see how good or bad things truly are.
Midseason report card for Bills
Offensive Grades
Quarterback: A-
Anyone who plays in or watches the NFL knows that Josh Allen is a top tier quarterback. He will likely find himself firmly in the MVP race for years to come, and he is one of the favorites already this season. Looking at his stats alone, they are pretty close to last year’s through the first eight games. I showed a friend of mine the stats side by side last week, and he was stunned. The sentiment for me was the same; there seems to be a bit of a different feel this season when it comes to Allen’s performance.
After the blowout win over the Panthers, I wrote an article questioning whether or not Allen was in a “funk.” Things just seemed off with him during that three week stretch, and he was showing flashes of his older tendencies (errant passes, holding the ball too long, leaving the pocket too early). Football is a game of three phases, but there is a reason that I started with the quarterback position.
Aside from the second half of the Baltimore game, Allen hasn’t had to be superman (James Cook, you get your grade next). He is still the touchdown machine that he’s been the last few years and is currently top 5 league wide in completion percentage. It is no secret that the Bills rely heavily on Allen. He has led them to a 6-2 record in back to back seasons and has answered the call pretty much every time they have needed him. What he can’t always control is how many times they do.
The reason Allen isn’t getting a higher grade is his performances in the two losses this year. I am diving into every position group, so we’ll talk about the defense too, but Allen has four interceptions on the year; three of them have come in those losses.
This past week we saw the MVP version of Allen on display, something that he needs to replicate if a run into February is in the cards.
Running Back: A+
James Cook, come on down. After holding out during training camp to negotiate a new contract, Cook has already shown the investment was well worth it. It likely happened sooner but for the sake of this article, it has only taken Cook eight games to prove that last season was not a fluke.
Aside from Allen, Cook has established himself as the most important player in the offense and has created a brand new type of attack this season. As it stands right now, the Bills have the lowest pass percentage in the entire NFL (49%). For reference, Cincinnati leads the league passing on almost 68% of their plays. Cook’s play has warranted this shift.
So far this year, Cook is first in yards per game (108.4), tied first in yards per carry (5.7), second in total yards (867) and fourth in touchdowns (7). If it isn't broken, don’t fix it! He has become a focal point of the offense and when he is effective, the Bills are extremely dynamic. How does his performance directly relate to wins and losses? Cook has been under 100 yards three times this season, two of them are the losses (the other is Baltimore where they trailed most of the game).
Despite the performance of Cook, I am still a bit surprised by the lack of touches for Ray Davis and Ty Johnson. While fans (myself included) are constantly screaming for more Cook snaps, I think there is an opportunity to play Cook in different spots on the field like a Bijan Robinson and put Davis or Johnson in the backfield. It adds another look to an already dynamic offense and gets more playmakers on the field.
Wide Receiver: D+
We have reached the hot button topic of the article. The spotlight has been on the receivers all season, and the heat has been turned up even more on this position group post trade deadline.
Before the season started, Brandon Beane and the front office made a few moves to add some new faces to the wide receiver room. In stepped Joshua Palmer and Elijah Moore to join Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel. Tyrell Shavers was a surprise breakthrough to the 53 man roster via an impressive preseason and he rounds out the unit. Since the departure of Stefon Diggs two years ago, Beane and the offense shifted their focus to an “everybody eats” mentality. While the offense has continued to put up points, the wide receivers have been the furthest thing from a bright spot.
When the offense is humming, which it has at certain points this season, Allen and company seem unstoppable. However, when they are sputtering and are in need of a wide receiver to step up and make some plays to bail them out, they have fallen short. Coupled with what the fans saw in the two losses with Diggs and Drake London, people were shouting for a true number one wideout from the rooftops.
To put things in just a purely statistical perspective, the Bills receivers in total have 1,122 yards through 8 games. In that same span, league leader Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 948 yards alone. It doesn’t tell the entire story, but he is the epitome right now of what a true number one receiver can do.
They have started to show up a bit more and make some catches in big spots, but there is a lot to desired when it comes to this group and they’ll have something to prove in the second half of the season.
Tight End: B+
It has taken a little bit of time for the tight ends to find their rhythm, but they have been a steady outlet for Allen over the last few years. Dalton Kincaid has started to really find his stride and role in the offense which has Bills fans very excited. He’s cracked the 100 yard mark in two of his last three games, both times on six receptions.
He is quickly becoming Allen’s favorite target and is a matchup problem for defenses. The natural ability to find the open spaces provides another level of versatility to this already lethal offense.
Two surprising bright spots for this offense have been Reggie Gilliam and Jackson Hawes, mainly through their blocking efforts. They have become invaluable pieces and with the shift in Joe Brady’s personnel packages this year, they have found themselves on the field quite a bit in the larger sets. Alongside that, Hawes has come up with some big time catches in high leverage situations, something that he wasn’t known for in college.
The reason for this group not climbing into the A’s has to do with the play of Dawson Knox. Once a favorite target for Allen, he has slowly faded into darkness in the offense. Once you get a big contract extension, the pressure to perform gets turned up. Knox has severely underperformed and is looking like a very bad investment. He needs to try and get himself back into the fold somehow or we could be seeing the final year of Knox in Buffalo.
Offensive Line: B+
Over the last two years, this has been one of the most consistent and steady units in the entire NFL. While their pass protection numbers have dipped a bit compared to last year, it’s impossible to drop them lower than this grade due to their run blocking efforts.
The talent is there across the board, so I have little doubt that they will continue to clean up the little things and “right the ship.” There is no need to panic by any means, but I hold this unit to a very high standard. One thing that needs to be called out are the penalties. While they only have 11 total accepted penalties as a group, All-Pro left tackle Dion Dawkins is uncharacteristically second in the league with six to his name alone. Something to monitor as we progress into the second half of the year.
Defensive Grades
Defensive Line: B+
Despite being a turnstile of bodies this year, the defensive line has played pretty well over the first eight games. Injuries have worked its way through this group and the next man up mentality has never been more prominent and necessary.
At defensive end Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa picked up right where they left off last year and have shown that they can disrupt offenses both in the passing game and running game. New additions Joey Bosa and Michael Hoecht have elevated that group to another level, and Bosa has seemed to find a rhythm we haven’t seen in a few years. The Hoecht injury is a massive blow, so the other three need to keep performing and leading from the front lines. In total, these four defensive ends have combined for 11.5 total sacks and 17 tackles for loss.
Moving inside to the tackle position, there is some room for improvement. Ed Oliver going down with a torn bicep was a huge loss, but the Bills may have struck gold in the draft with rookie Deone Walker. Along with Walker, DaQuan Jones and Jordan Phillips have been the mainstays in the middle of the line and have shown signs of improvement over the last two games, especially on run plays. Since giving up 210 yards on the ground in their loss to Atlanta, the Bills defense has only given up 193 rushing yards in the last two games (4 YPC).
Linebacker: C-
A common theme for the defense has been the injury bug. Both Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard have spent some time on the sidelines this year, giving way for Dorian Williams, Shaq Thompson and Joe Andreessen. Overall, I think this has been one of the weaker years for the linebacker group in recent memory.
They have been sloppy in coverage and have consistently taken bad angles when coming down hill to stop the run. While it has been an issue across the board, their tackling has been subpar too.
Consistency at the position will help, but the idea of a rotation will help to keep this group fresh as the season wears on. This year, the Bills have played more base package defense in a long time and over the last couple of games it has really paid off.
Cornerback: B
Let’s get right into it; Maxwell Hairston has brought some new life to the secondary and may have already solidified himself as the CB2 across from Christian Benford. Those two may be a very formidable pairing for years to come in this league.
That hasn’t been the same story for the other corners in the rotation. Tre’Davious White looks like his better years are behind him, Taron Johnson looks like he has lost a step after securing an extension and Cam Lewis has shown that he is too up and down to be seen as a reliable regular in coverage. With all that being said, the Bills defense is second best in passing yards allowed per game (169.9).
I’ve mentioned the two losses quite a bit in this article, and we touched on the massive performances from Diggs and London. Those numbers were a direct reflection of the lack of talent and poor scheme choices by defensive coordinator Bobby Babich. What has changed since then? Hairston and Benford have shown that they can excel when called upon in man coverage and Babich has realized that. Let’s see if that continues.
Safety: C+
Another young face has brought new life to the defense, and that is Cole Bishop. After a very rocky rookie season and start to this one, Bishop had the game of his career against Kansas City. It took him some time to get going and Bills fans were starting to question his viability in the lineup, but Bishop answered the call and may have cemented himself as their safety for the future.
Before the recent step forward, the safeties were a massive liability. Coverage was poor, teams were picking on them and their tackling was abysmal. Angles were constantly wrong and when they got to a ball carrier, they couldn’t wrap up to save their lives. If it wasn’t for the mini-renaissance, this grade would be far worse.
Although you never hope for injuries, it seems the departures of Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin to the IR have opened the door to a more effective rotation with Bishop, Jordan Hancock and veteran Jordan Poyer. This group may still be a bit of a weak spot compared to other units on defense, but they have stepped up their game and will continue to improve as they get more reps together.
Special Teams: C-
I will keep this section short and sweet. Matt Prater has been a serviceable fill in for the massive question mark that is Tyler Bass. He became a hero when he hit the game winner as time expired against Baltimore and had not been called upon for a pressure kick since then, until last week. With an opportunity to seal the game and make it a two score game against Kansas City, Prater pushed his 52 yard field goal wide to give Patrick Mahomes a chance to break Bills fans’ hearts yet again.
Punting overall in the last few years has been a pain point for me. The Bills have yet to find a consistent punter and have already cycled through three this season. Their current punter Mitch Wishnowsky again has been serviceable for the most part, but the stats tell a bigger story. His longest punt on the season is 54 yards (34th out of 36 qualifying punters) and his average is a mere 43.9 yards (30th out of 31). A recipe for disaster when Buffalo needs a kick to flip the field.
Sitting at 6-2 and a game out of first in the AFC East, the Bills are still top contenders for a Super Bowl run this year. While there is plenty of room for improvement, there are also a ton of positives to continue building on. Brandon Beane held steady at the trade deadline (I left my comments at the door on this one) and he has the utmost confidence in this roster. I too am excited to see where this team goes in the second half of the season and hopefully, beyond.