As the Buffalo Bills prepare to host the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs, there's much to be discussed. The MVP race between Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, the dominant season from All-Pro running back Derrick Henry, the gap in playoff performances between the two quarterbacks, and the beatdown the Ravens delivered to the Bills earlier this season. Truly, it's an exhausting list.
Luckily for both sides, there's only one thing that we absolutely have to discuss; this Sunday. Both teams fight for the opportunity to go to the AFC Championship game. Only one fights for a Super Bowl appearance next weekend.
Despite the head-to-head loss, Buffalo had all but locked up the #2 seed with two weeks left in the season. Baltimore had to win their final game of the season to secure their division title, and it came at cost. Top Ravens receiver Zay Flowers suffered a knee injury in the game, and is doubtful to play this weekend. His play was largely inconsequential in the first meeting, with just one catch for 10 yards, but losing him as an option will hurt the Ravens.
Prediction #1 - Derrick Henry, Good Not Great
The Buffalo Bills were absolutely steamrolled when the two teams met early this season. Lamar Jackson was limited in his usage, but very efficient, going 13-of-18 passing for 156 yards and two touchdowns, adding a third score with his legs. The true culprit for the Bills' beatdown was Derrick Henry. His first touch was an 87-yard rushing touchdown, longest in Ravens history, highlighting a 199-yard rushing game where he averaged 8.3 yards per carry. It was Henry, and his immense impact on the game, that put things out of reach for Buffalo.
The Bills' defense is typically of a single philosophy. They allow the other team to run, and build everything to defend against the pass. It's proven effective, but the Ravens are a different beast. Derrick Henry is a different beast.
Unlike the thrashing from late September, however, Buffalo will have the middle of their defense back. All-Pros at nickel cornerback and outside linebacker, Taron Johnson and Matt Milano, will both be active, as will starting middle linebacker Terrel Bernard. None were on the field last time these teams met.
With a fully-staffed defense, Buffalo has two of their surest tacklers on either side of the hash marks. Henry will certainly get his yards, but if his breakaway plays are capped then the Ravens lose their best chance at cracking this game open. With the three men tasked with stopping the King actually healthy, it will be a different performance on defense.
Prediction #2 - Buffalo Wins Turnover Battle
The Baltimore Ravens are by no means a team that turns the ball over. In fact, they turned it over third-fewest in the league this season. Their defense is consistent, and has forced a respectable 17 turnovers of their own. We do not discredit the job they've done this season with this prediction. Still, the 2024 Buffalo Bills only lost the ball eight times all year, tying the 2019 New Orleans Saints for fewest offensive turnovers in a season.
Buffalo did that on the back of an actual balanced offense and remarkable refinements to the game of Josh Allen. All of that made more impressive by sitting their starters for nearly three full games of snaps, and playing a 17-game season. It's an unprecedented year for ball security.
That, in combination with their 32 forced turnovers (1 shy of the NFL lead), leaves the Buffalo Bills as the runaway leaders in turnover differential (+24). As Josh Allen plays the most efficient football of his career, and the Bills defense consistently generates big plays, Buffalo can expect to win the turnover battle.
Prediction #3 - Final Score
The Buffalo Bills and the Baltimore Ravens are more than just conventional adversaries, they're rivals. The fight hasn't been kind, as they're both fallen short in the postseason for different reasons. Now, one is guaranteed the chance to fight for a Super Bowl berth. It's a shame it'll come at the cost of the other, but that's what we love about the game. It's unforgiving, and relentless.
Buffalo may have lost the last matchup badly but, as they return with a newfound vigor and much-refreshed personnel, a lot has changed since then. The Baltimore Ravens are on the road because they too fell short many times this season. These are two different teams than the ones who entered 2024, re-forged in the crucible of an NFL schedule. It'll be Buffalo that comes out on top in this one.