The Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs. Peanut butter and jelly, syrup and pancakes, barbecues and tailgating. Iconic duos stud every aspect of our lives, but these two pair up for NFL football like no other combo. The lone team to truly hold the inevitable Chiefs to a loss, and the sole boogeyman capable of stopping the Bills more than once in a lifetime.
It's remarkable, really, that this pair is set to meet for the fourth time in five postseasons. Will the results be the same-old-same-old story that we know so well, or is there magic left in this NFL season?
After last week's matchup of MVP candidates, it's difficult to imagine a game with more hype - this is that game. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are two sides of a coin, meeting up for the ninth time since Buffalo drafted Allen in 2018. Since that first meeting in 2020, no two non-division rivals have played one another more than this duo. The record? 4-4, with Buffalo winning four of the last six.
The divide arrives when you look at the regular and postseason splits; Buffalo is 0-3 against these same Chiefs when the season is on the line. Though no one but Buffalo knows how to stop Kansas City, they've still been kryptonite to the Bills in the postseason. Now, a golden opportunity to turn that record around and head to Super Bowl LIX is on the line.
Prediction #1 - Patrick Mahomes, Pocket Passer Extraordinaire
The Buffalo Bills' defensive gameplans for most mobile quarterbacks is one and the same - contain their legs and force them to beat you with their arm. He may not be the elusive threat that Lamar Jackson is, but Mahomes can and will use his legs to make the play when all else seems to fail. Trapping him in a collapsing pocket and not allowing him to roll out will be a feature, not a bug. Still, Mahomes has one of the best arms in the NFL, capable of popping off at any given moment. It hasn't done that much this season.
In fact, for 2024, Patrick Mahomes has looked positively pedestrian. The Kansas City Chiefs' offense hasn't exceeded 30 points in a game this season, a first for the Mahomes era, and the tape matches the box score. The Chiefs offense scored at an average rate, and punted an average amount. Though the Chiefs were impressive, and their record is undeniable, they won largely on the back of a scary defense that suffocates opposition, in combination with their ball security. Kansas City had only 14 total giveaways this year, 4th-fewest.
Buffalo was comfortable with Mahomes in the pocket last time they met, the only game this year without a rush attempt from the Chiefs' QB, and this time will be no different.
Prediction #2 - Buffalo Switches It Up
Buffalo controlled the game against Baltimore with their forceful line play and dedication to the run game. But, the Kansas City Chiefs defense is a terrifying unit. They may not have the most turnovers in the league, or mind-blowing sack numbers, but they're efficient and consistent. It's why they've only allowed 18.9 points per game to opposition this year, third-best in the NFL.
They truly have no glaring weaknesses. Even the Bills' powerful run game hit a wall when they played, averaging only 3.4 yards per attempt. It was their second-least efficient day of the season, and that sample includes Josh Allen's 26-yard fourth-down touchdown. Remove it, and the rate drops to only 2.9 yards per attempt. Buffalo couldn't manufacture a breakaway all day.
The Buffalo Bills may be an offensive powerhouse but, if they want to keep it rolling against KC, they need to find a rhythm passing. It'll be an early focus if the run game fails, and one they have to lean into. Josh Allen was all but flawless in November, with four receivers over 50 yards, but he was without two weapons. Rookie WR Keon Coleman and TE1 Dalton Kincaid are great targets to manufacture a mismatch with, and get those plays when you absolutely need them. With them on the field, Buffalo can force the issue, and have a more balanced gameplan.
Prediction #3 - Final Score
In the regular season, the Buffalo Bills ended the Kansas City Chiefs perfect season and sent them packing with a two-score victory. It's that sort of evidence that we'd love to use to show how Buffalo can win this game, but it would be dishonest. That line of reasoning didn't work for the Baltimore Ravens, and it won't apply here. Too much changes from one week to the next, and that single-game sample isn't enough to show us anything predictive.
Instead, we lean on the trends we know, and listen to what the field shows us.
That info tells us the Buffalo Bills win this one. It's a close game, but one that finally sees Josh Allen and company etch their names in Super Bowl history.