Despite the frustrating loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Buffalo Bills still have eyes on the big prize, the Lombardi Trophy, with a spot in the NFL Playoffs already locked in. Getting to Super Bowl LX won’t be easy, as Buffalo will have to win at least two road games to even reach the AFC Championship.
After a chaotic Week 17, though, the Bills' likely first-round matchup in the Wild Card round has shifted tremendously. While most of the AFC field is set, the Bills head into the final week of the regular season knowing they could head just about anywhere for the first round of the playoffs.
With that in mind, however, their most likely opponent after the Week 17 results might be the most difficult challenge the AFC Playoff bracket has to offer.
Buffalo Bills' most likely Wild Card draw now points south after Week 17 chaos
According to data from PlayoffStatus, the Bills' most likely Wild Card opponent is the Jacksonville Jaguars, with a 58% chance of the matchup taking place. There are quite a few scenarios where the Bills could face the Jaguars, though the simplest route involves the Bills, Patriots, Jaguars, Broncos, and Texans all winning their final games of the season. If the Chargers beat the Broncos and the other four win their games, then Buffalo would still play the Jags, just as a 7-seed instead.
Of course, just as last week’s data suggested the most likely first-round opponent for Buffalo was the Pittsburgh Steelers, this projection can swing in a different direction quite easily. The Jaguars have a spot in the postseason clinched, but they can realistically take any of the seven seeds in the field with a bit of chaos around the league.
If the Bills do draw the Jags in the first round of the playoffs, it’ll be a daunting matchup for Buffalo. The Jaguars have won seven straight, including wins over the Broncos and Chargers, who have also locked in a spot in the postseason.
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence is playing some of the cleanest football of his career. He has scored 14 touchdowns in December with just one turnover. On the other side of the ball, the Jaguars' defense has forced at least two turnovers in each of the past five games and carries the league’s top-ranked rushing defense.
READ MORE: Bills' Week 17 stat should have playoff teams wanting to face Buffalo
Jacksonville wraps up its regular season with the Tennessee Titans, so even if the Jaguars rest their starters, they still have a realistic shot of closing the season with a win, which would lock them into the 3-seed or better.
Buffalo still has an 18% chance of getting the 5-seed and heading to either Pittsburgh or Baltimore to play the AFC North champion instead. It goes without saying that this is a more favorable matchup for any AFC playoff team this season.