After losing to the New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football, fans of both the Bills and Patriots are probably asking the same question. Have the Patriots already surpassed the Bills and reclaimed the throne of the best team in the AFC East?
It's a valid question to ask. New England is 3-2, just a game back of Buffalo, and just handed the Bills their first loss of the season. Not only that, they bested Buffalo in Buffalo, on a primetime game. With a new head coach in Mike Vrabel leading the way, and second-year quarterback Drake Maye looking like a legit starter, New England is rebuilding itself into contender status.
But have they surpassed the Bills? Absolutely not.
Let's break down some of the key team statistics through five weeks.
On offense, Buffalo is clearly the better team, and their run game is a big reason why. Buffalo is averaging 395.8 yards per game, the third most in the league. New England ranks 15th, at 336.6 yards per game.
In passing, the two teams are tied in seventh place, with both squads averaging 241.4 yards per game in the air. On the ground, however, Buffalo is rushing for the second-most yards in the league, at 154.5. New England ranks 27th, averaging just 95.2 yards.
It's a big reason why Buffalo is scoring 30.6 points per game (third most), opposed to New England, scoring 25 points per game (11th).
Defensively, New England is giving up fewer points, but Buffalo is giving up fewer yards. You'd expect that to even out over the course of the full season, but as of now, Buffalo's 299.6 yards-allowed-per-game is ninth in the league, while the Patriots' 327.8 yards-allowed-per-game ranks 19th.
Buffalo is allowing 22.6 points per game, New England 20.2. The difference there is probably not big enough to proclaim New England's defense superior, considering the difference in yardage.
Then there's the difference in turnovers. While Buffalo did struggle on Sunday night turning it over three times, the Bills still have a positive differential on the season. They have four giveaways and five takeaways so far.
New England, meanwhile, has seven giveaways (10th most in the league) and six takeaways, giving them a negative differential.
Yes, the Patriots are an improved team from 2024, and they are a worthy challenge for Buffalo. But the numbers still support Buffalo as the better team overall. So do the latest DVOA rankings, which have the Bills in 10th and the Patriots 21st.
More likely, this game is an example of a classic division-rivalry chaos game. The Patriots were extra amped up for the game, and Buffalo, feeling good about their 4-0 record and their dominance of New England in recent years, played slopply and unprepared. At the end of the day, Buffalo, at their worst, still only lost by 3 points. If Buffalo had brought their A-game, they probably would have won by multiple scores.