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Bills' biggest X-factor in 2026 is someone who will never see the field

Nov 26, 2022; Madison, Wisconsin, USA;  Wisconsin Badgers head coach Jim Leonhard prior to the game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 26, 2022; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Jim Leonhard prior to the game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports | USA TODAY Sports

The Buffalo Bills decided that they needed to make some major changes to get over the hump. Despite Josh Allen and the rest of the roster giving this team a very high floor, the organization replaced head coach Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Bobby Babich with Joe Brady and Jim Leonhard.

These moves were done with the intent of giving a Bills team that has not managed to appear in a Super Bowl during the Allen era the breakthrough they needed. As such, the coaching staff changes may have more impact on Buffalo's performance late in the season than any other decision this organization made.

ESPN listed Leonhard as Buffalo's biggest X-factor, noting that Leonhard will have even more responsibility than most first-time coordinators. Going from a hands-on defensive coach in McDermott to a first-time offensive head coach in Brady will mean this unit will be Leonhard's show to run. Time will tell if he can make this balancing act work.

ESPN lists Bills DC Jim Leonhard as biggest X-factor in 2026

Leonhard, who came to Buffalo as an undrafted free agent in 2005 and carved out a solid career with teams like the Ravens and Jets, has long been thought of as a rising star in the coaching ranks. Leonhard was a well-regarded defensive coordinator for six seasons at his alma mater, Wisconsin. With the Denver Broncos, another team he played for, Leonhard took off.

Leonhard not only spent the last few years making Patrick Surtain II the best cornerback in football as the team's defensive backs coach, but he also managed to earn a promotion to assistant head coach last season. Leonhard may perform well enough to generate some serious head coaching buzz if he succeeds where Babich failed in past years.

The Bills have enough playmakers that this should be a solid defense that is capable of supporting Allen to an adequate degree. However, with a defensive line that leaves quite a lot to be desired, a secondary banking on many unproven young players, and a 2026 NFL Draft class that is full of long-term developmental swings, Leonhard might find it trying to get this defense kicked up a notch.

Buffalo can count on Allen's raw might giving them a chance. It's on Brady's schematic machinations and Leonhard's might as a play-caller to help them break through a ceiling that was very firmly established by McDermott due to his limitations.

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