The Buffalo Bills are sitting comfortably at 7-2 at the moment, with the New York Jets, their next biggest threat within their division, at 3-6. However, after their game against the Colts, the Bills are about to get into the tough part of the schedule, so this game could decide where they finish in the conference.
The Indianapolis Colts are in a weird position, especially with a talented team. They're sitting at 4-5 with their talented yet flawed quarterback behind Joe Flacco, who's been the better quarterback for the team so far.
The Colts have a talented receiving group in Michael Pittman Jr. (who has been ruled out for Sunday), Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, and rookie Adonai Mitchell. Even with the quarterback situation, the passing offense is only ranked 11th in the league. The thing that's holding them back is the offense's nine interception total and quarterback rating, which is an abysmal 76.4, which is fourth worst in the NFL.
However, the offense also has one of the best running backs in football with Jonathan Taylor at the helm. Along with a respectable offensive line and defense, the Colts won't be any cakewalk, so here are the key matchups that the Bills need to pay attention to.
Bills front seven vs. Jonathan Taylor
The only way the Colts can get an advantage over the Bills is if the Colts run the ball effectively throughout the game. The Bills defense struggled most of the year with stopping the run, tied for allowing the fourth most yards per carry this season.
The front line needs to establish penetration and disrupt run plays. Jonathan Taylor is over 500 yards rushing on the year and is averaging 4.8 yards per carry. The Colts will try to establish the run as much as they can and try their best to keep Josh Allen off the field.
Bills defensive line vs. Colts offensive line
Joe Flacco isn't in his prime anymore, but he's willing to throw all over the field. However, like many other quarterbacks, he isn't mobile and can't throw under pressure.
The Bills' defensive line has been inconsistent this season. Many times they'll get pressure in passing situations, but there are other times when they can't pressure the quarterback. Take last game for example, where Tua Tagovailoa was able to dice up the secondary and only throw three incompletions on 28 attempts.
With Von Miller and Greg Rousseau, the defense should be generating more pressures than they had last week. The Bills added some familiar faces back on the line as well, with Quintin Jefferson and Jordan Phillips returning to the roster. The Colts' offensive line is arguably better than the Dolphins', so the defensive line needs to step it up this week if they want to solidify a win this Sunday.
Dalton Kincaid vs. Colts' linebackers and safeties
The Bills ruled out Keon Coleman for this Sunday. However, Amari Cooper will likely play after being sidelined last week with a similar injury. Even with Cooper and Shakir healthy, there's a chance that Kincaid will have to step up in this game.
Kincaid has been a riding passenger in the passing game as he's not being used as much as Bills fans expected, recording only 332 receiving yards and two touchdowns. The most receiving yards he recorded in a game this season was 52 yards against the Titans.
The Colts have given up 533 yards to tight ends this year, which is third most in the league. The Bills will try to attack the weakness of that defense and involve Kincaid in the passing game more.