In Week 14, the Buffalo Bills face the Cincinnati Bengals in a matchup that stacks up much differently on paper now than it did two weeks ago. Even at 4-8, the Bengals are fighting for their postseason lives with Joe Burrow back under center.
Cincinnati beat the Baltimore Ravens in Burrow’s return to action last Sunday, giving the team the confidence and divisional win required to make a late-season push from the cellar of the AFC standings.
Still, the Bills hold several advantages in the matchup. The Bengals may be a perfect 3-0 with Burrow in the lineup, but their 8 losses didn’t all come from a lack of offensive production.
3 Bengals weaknesses Buffalo Bills need to aggressively attack
1. Replicate the rushing attack from Week 13
Against the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Buffalo Bills rushed 51 times for 249 yards. That was against the 17th-ranked rushing defense in the league. Of course, the Steelers are far from consistent defensively, but the Bengals’ mark of consistency isn’t exactly a positive.
The Bengals carry the league’s 31st-ranked rushing defense, allowing 5.1 yards per carry. Their young, inexperienced front seven - which will be without Trey Hendrickson once again - has struggled to contain opponents on the ground all season long. The Bengals have allowed at least 100 yards on the ground in every game since Week 2, allowing more than 125 yards seven times.
Ball control is the name of the game in the AFC North, and a potent rushing attack is the best way to do it. Anything that keeps Joe Burrow off the field should be considered a win for the Bills.
James Cook should be able to feast on this Bengals defense in much the same way that he did against Pittsburgh, and it shouldn’t even require running Duo nearly 30 times.
2. Attack Cincinnati’s young linebackers in the middle of the field
Mid-round rookies Demetrius Knight and Barrett Carter are the starting linebackers for the Bengals, and both have had their share of growing pains this season. Not only have they been out of position in the rushing attack, but they both struggle in coverage.
Knight has allowed 74.4% of passes in his coverage area to be completed for over 311 yards and a score. Quarterbacks have an 84.5 rating when targeting him. He does have two interceptions on the season, however.
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Carter hasn’t fared much better, allowing 86% of passes to be completed for over 500 yards and two scores. Quarterbacks have a 123.6 rating when targeting him.
Establishing the run and baiting these young linebackers with play action is an obvious avenue to success for Buffalo this week. Get some shallow crossers going, too, and the passing game should look a bit better after a humble outing last week.
3. Single out Andrei Iosivas in the passing game
The Bengals’ passing attack has long been a ‘pick your poison’ operation, but the Bills have the talent to make sure the poison is as diluted as possible. With Tre’Davious White and Christian Benford on the corners against J’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, Buffalo should be able to single out the weak link in the Bengals' passing game, Andrei Iosivas.
Iosivas has struggled in spurts this season. Of his 24 receptions on the season, 17 have converted for first downs. However, that’s on 44 targets. Iosivas has dropped 9.1% of his targets and was the target on two interceptions this season. Bad things seem to happen when Cincinnati is forced to look his way.
Chase and Higgins will make some plays, that’s a given. But limiting their production and forcing Burrow to look for Iosivas is the most favorable outcome the Bills can look for when their defense is on the field.