Bengals vs. Bills prediction and odds for NFL divisional round (Buffalo will advance to AFC Championship)

Dean Marlowe (Syndication: Democrat and Chronicle)
Dean Marlowe (Syndication: Democrat and Chronicle) /

Just a few short weeks ago, the Cincinnati Bengals were up 7-3 on the Buffalo Bills in the first quarter before disaster struck. Damar Hamlin of the Bills collapsed on the field and the game, as a result, was eventually cancelled.

Now, Hamlin is on his way to recovery and the Bengals and Bills get to wrap up unfinished business in the divisional round of the playoffs.

Let’s dive into the odds for the game and then I’ll give you my best bet.

Bengals vs. Bills odds, spread, and total

Bengals vs. Bills betting trends

  • Bengals are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games
  • Bengals have won nine straight games
  • Bills are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games against Bengals
  • Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games
  • The OVER is 4-1 in the Bills’ last five games
  • The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams

Bengals vs. Bills prediction and pick

Despite the Bengals winning nine straight games, I’m not all that convinced that they are the Super Bowl contenders that many people think they are. Offensively, they’re averaging 5.4 yards per play, which ranks 14th in the NFL. Defensively, they’re allowing opponents to gain an average of 5.4 yards per play, which ranks 17th in the NFL.

Those aren’t exactly numbers you’d see from a Super Bowl contender. The Bills, on the other hand, rank second and fifth in those two categories.

One key area to keep an eye on this game is the Bills ability to convert third downs. They lead the NFL in third down conversion rate, getting a first down on 50.72% of third down opportunities. Now, they face a Bengals defense that ranks 16th in opponent third down conversion rate.

The Bengals offensive line is also banged up, which is going to cost them in this game. La’el Collins and Alex Cappa were already out, but now you can add Jonah Williams to the list, who dislocated his knee against the Ravens on Sunday night.

I’ll take the Bills to win and cover and advance to the AFC Championship Game.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.