When the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins played back in Week 15 up in the snow in Buffalo, it felt like a monumental game that could’ve been an AFC Championship preview. Now, after Tua Tagovailoa suffered his third concussion of the season and is out for the playoffs, the game has lost a lot of its luster.
The Bills are big favorites at home with Josh Allen up and against rookie, seventh-rounder, Skylar Thompson.
It’s nearly a two-touchdown spread for this one, so let’s take a look at the odds, before I give out my same game parlay for the early Sunday game in Super Wild Card Weekend.
It’s been a tough road for Miami with Tua’s concussions, but the Bills will be even more motivated to win for Damar Hamlin, who is out of the hospital and back in Buffalo. Last year, the Bills blew out New England in the Wild Card round and they might just do the same to a different AFC East punching bag.
At FanDuel Sportsbook, this four-leg same game parlay pays out +701; meaning a $25 bet would pay out 175.38. That’s not a bad playoff payday.
Best same game parlay picks for Dolphins vs. Bills
- Dolphins vs. Bills -6.5 (-280)
- Josh Allen 40+ Rushing Yards (-260)
- Dawson Knox Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
- Stefon Diggs Anytime TD (+110)
Dolphins vs. Bills -6.5 (-280)
Miami beat Buffalo all the way back in Week 3, but the Bills frankly dominated that game, the better team did not win that weekend. The heat certainly played a factor and it definitely won’t be hot in Buffalo this weekend. When they played up in the snow, it was close, 32-29 to the Bills, but that was with Tua, without him it’s a different story.
No chance that Miami wins this game, I think the Bills cover the 13.5, but I’ll bring it down for some security.
Josh Allen 40+ Rushing Yards (-260)
When the Bills need to win a game, they don’t turn to their running backs to get tough yardage, they hand the entire offense over to Josh Allen. He’s a superhero who can handle the workload. In his six career playoff games, he’s run for 371 yards, that’s 61.8 per game and he’s averaging 7.3 yards per carry. Just one time has he gone under 40 yards rushing in his playoff career.
Last time against Miami in Week 15, he ran the ball for a team high 77 yards on ten carries.
Dawson Knox Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Knox is a reliable part of this Bills offense and he had his biggest game of the season against Miami. Knox finished that game with six catches for 98 yards and a touchdown. I don’t think he’ll lead the team in receiving yards again, but Miami doesn’t match up well against him and Allen doesn’t seem to fully trust his secondary receivers as much as he did last postseason.
Gabriel Davis Anytime TD (+110)
Speaking of those secondary receivers outside of Stephon Diggs, here’s Gabriel Davis, or Playoff Gabe. Let’s take a trip down memory lane to the Bills last playoff game, it was just last season in Kansas City and I seem to remember 13 seconds mattering quite a bit.
While that game is remembered for KC’s heroics Gabe Davis was dominant, he finished with eight catches for 201 yards and four touchdowns. That’s right, four touchdowns.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.