There’s been some wild line movement in the Bills-Dolphins Wild Card game amidst the uncertainty of who would start at QB for Miami. But now that we know Tua Tagovailoa is out and Skylar Thompson is in, the spread has settled with the Bills a -13.5 point favorite at most sportsbooks.
While that spread is meaty, it doesn’t mean you shouldn’t bet the Bills to cover the spread In fact, recent history says they have 78.6% chance of covering.
According to John Ewing from BetMGM, double-digit favorites in the Wild Card round of the NFL Playoffs are an incredible 11-3 against the spread since 2010. That means, if that trend holds, the Bills should cover against Miami this weekend.
As of right now, Bills-Dolphins is the only Wild Card game featuring a double-digit spread. The 49ers are -9.5 against Seattle and the Bengals are -8 against Baltimore. In all likelihood, the latter won’t change but the 49ers could inch up a half point depending on how the money moves.
Of course, no one should blindly bet on the Bills based on one historical trend. The Dolphins beat the Bills earlier this season and also played them tight later in the year. But Tagovailoa was under center for both of those games and Thompson is coming off a bad performance against the Jets in Week 18, so this game will be different.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.