Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction, Odds and Betting Pick for Wild Card playoffs
The Bills returned to the field after an emotional week following Damar Hamlin’s injury and recovery and flashed the potential they’ve displayed throughout the year. It’s why they’re massive favorites against the Dolphins in the Wild Card round this week and why they have the second-shortest odds to win the Super Bowl this year.
That being said, should you rush out to bet the Bills as -10.5 favorites against Miami? I’ll get to my best bet for the game below, but either way, you can bet $5 and win $200 on the game with DraftKings limited-time promo.
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Now, onto the pick.
Dolphins vs Bills Odds, Spread and Total
Dolphins vs Bills Prediction and Pick
There’s a reason the Bills are -10.5 point favorites. Beyond the fact that they’re a dominant team, the Dolphins’ QB situation remains unclear. Starter Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) and backup Teddy Bridgewater (hand) are both questionable for the game. If third-stringer Skylar Thompson starts again, as he did against the Jets in Week 18, this line could move even more in the Bills’ direction.
With so much uncertainty around the line, I’m going to focus on the OVER/UNDER. Sure, the Dolphins and Bills combined for 61 points when they played in mid-December, but over their last three games the Dolphins are giving up the second-fewest yards per play in the NFL, which has resulted in them giving up over 23.5 points per game throughout the season to just 18.3 over their last three.
The Bills’ defense has given up more points over that same time period (17.9 vs 21.7), but they’re giving up about the same yards per play (5.1 vs 5.3), which should mean the points will regress to the mean.
Beyond that, the Dolphins’ quarterback situation, regardless of who starts, necessitates they play a more methodical, run-first offense. While the Bills’ up-tempo style will negate that somewhat, I don’t think the Dolphins have the firepower to keep up and will do anything in their power to try and shorten the game.
That said, I’m taking the UNDER on 43.5 points per game. The Bills have historically played high-scoring games in the playoffs with Josh Allen under center, but I think this week bucks the trend.
PICK: UNDER 43.5
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.