The Buffalo Bills can take a massive step toward officially locking up the AFC East in Week 15 when they host the Miami Dolphins in a revenge spot from Week 3, when Miami upset the Bills by a final score of 21-19.
Now is the perfect time for the Bills to get the Dolphins, who have struggled in two straight weeks, looking as bad as they have all season in consecutive losses. The rematch will go down in the Saturday night prime time slot on December 17.
So how should we bet on this divisional showdown? Let’s take a look at the odds and break down our Dolphins vs. Bills prediction and best bet.
Dolphins vs. Bills Odds, Spread, and Total
Dolphins vs. Bills Betting Trends
- Dolphins are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games
- Bills are 7-1 straight up in last eight games against Dolphins
- Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games
- Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games
- The UNDER is 9-2 in the Bills’ last 11 games
Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction and Pick
If you’re willing to lay the touchdown worth of points and bet on the Bills, then go ahead, but I’m going to look in a different direction.
The UNDER is 9-2 in the Bills’ last 11 games, and that’s how I’m betting on this Week 3 rematch. The Bills defense has been dominant in recent weeks, allowing only 4.6 yards per play over their last three games. That’s the third best mark in the NFL over that stretch.
Miami’s defense isn’t far behind, ranking 15th in that stat over that same stretch.
The main reason I like this play is the Miami defense has looked terrible in two straight weeks. I don’t know if it’s that opposing coaches have figured out Mike McDaniel, or Tua is starting to regress to his mean, but I’m willing to wager on them having another tough day in Buffalo.
A huge bright spot for Buffalo this season has been its red zone defense. The Bills are allowing teams to score a touchdown on only 47.37% of red zone trips against them, which is the third best mark in the NFL.
The two teams combined for only 40 points in their previous meeting, and I bet it’ll go below the total once again.
You can track Iain’s bets on Betstamp here.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.