Is Buffalo Bills WR Gabriel Davis breakout season a foregone conclusion?

One of the most talked about storylines, mostly in fantasy football, entering this season is Gabriel Davis having a breakout season in 2022. It has gotten to the point that it almost seems like it is a certainty.

The confidence in such a season makes sense considering Davis had a historic performance the last time he was on the field. He caught four touchdown passes and had over 200 receiving yards in the AFC Divisional Round against the Kansas City Chiefs.

He is now entering his third year in the league, typically the year most wide receivers break out, and is expected to be the starter replacing Emmanuel Sanders on the outside opposite Stefon Diggs.

On top of all of that, he is playing with Josh Allen in one of the top passing offenses in the league. There is certainly plenty to like about Gabriel Davis’ prospects of breaking out this season. However, there are still a few reasons to be concerned that it may not come together this season.

Two things that could hold Gabriel Davis back in 2022

While there are more positives than negatives with Gabriel Davis and his chances of breaking out, there are two things that potentially could hold him back. The first is a fairly low catch rate during his first two years in the league around 55%.

Last year in fact, Gabriel Davis had the lowest catch rate on the team among players with 10 or more targets on the Bills. This is something that he will need to improve to truly have that breakout season and limiting drops will help as he has had eight over the past two seasons.

The other potential issue is that the Buffalo Bills are going to be making changes to their offense with a new offensive coordinator in Ken Dorsey. While there will be plenty of similarities to the offense run by Brian Daboll, it won’t be exactly the same offense.

Some changes this year could be more two-tight end sets with O.J. Howard added this offseason to play alongside Dawson Knox. The other potential factor is James Cook as the Buffalo Bills now have a legitimate threat out of the backfield in the passing game.

These two players, along with a combination of Jamison Crowder and Isaiah McKenzie replacing Cole Beasley, could all limit the targets Gabriel Davis gets. This season there are a lot more options for Josh Allen and with targets spread out, it could limit the breakout season for Gabriel Davis.

Predicting breakout seasons is not an exact science and in the end, there are more reasons to believe it happens in 2022 for Gabriel Davis. However, it is far from a foregone conclusion for the Buffalo Bills wide receiver.