Ranking Josh Allen among the QBs of the AFC before 2022 NFL Draft

1A. Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)

There were some that claimed Josh Allen’s 2020 season was an aberration. No way he could put up MVP numbers once again. Boy, how wrong they were.

Josh Allen had 42 more total TDs (36 passing, 6 rushing), with 5,170 total yards (4,407 passing, 763 rushing) and 15 INTs. While his ratings dipped a little during the regular season — 107. passer rating and 76.6 QBR in ’20, 92.2 passer rating and 60.7 QBR in ’21 — those numbers don’t show the type of pressure put on the Wyoming product.

Before Devin Singletary finished the season with 75 yards from scrimmage in six of the last seven games, and after starting the year with three such games within the first month, there was a stretch of seven games where no one in the backfield reached that mark.

That pushed Josh Allen to take off more than normal, as his 763 rushing yards and 122 carries were both career highs. And even with facing more pressures than he ever has (185 total pressures), Allen’s elite 9.6 yards per scramble helped the Bills move past some of the woes their offensive line had in the middle of the year.

Josh Allen’s running ability continues to be one of his strongest skills as the rushing TD leader for QBs since 2018, as he’s also piled up 2,325 ground yards in his career.

And to think about how his accuracy has improved, Josh Allen has far exceeded everyone’s expectations. After posting a 25.7% poor-throws rate as a rookie and 20.3% in 2019, the 2018 first-round pick has been well below those marks in each of the past two seasons (16% in 2020, 17.4% in 2021).

But I think what really pushed me to take Josh Allen as my 1A was his performance in last season’s playoffs. Not only did he give Bill Belichick his worst postseason loss in the Wild Card Round with what was essentially a perfect game with more TDs than completions, but he also followed that up with a Divisional Round showing that will go down as one of the greatest ever in a losing effort.

Josh Allen’s nine TD passes in the postseason were the third-most in playoff history. And that is great in itself, but it looks even greater when you consider each player that had nine more TDs — Joe Montana, Kurt Warner and Joe Flacco (11), Brady (twice) and Mahomes in 2019 (10), Matthew Stafford, Steve Young, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers (twice), Peyton and Eli Manning — all played in at least their conference championship game, while others played in the Super Bowl, meaning each player did this in three or four games.

Josh Allen did so in two. His 149.0 rating was the highest of all time for a single postseason, surpassing Montana (146.4), Jeff Hostetler (146.0), Rodney Peete (143.3), Bart Starr and Sid Luckman (135.6), for the five highest totals ever.

And again, he’s not perfect. Josh Allen’s 18 TOs in 2021 (15 INTs, 3 fumbles) were tied for the third-most in the NFL. His 74.8% on-target throws rate also ranked 24th in the league last season.

But when you consider the improvements each season, the ability to take over games with maybe the strongest arm in the game, as well as his gifts as a runner, it’s hard to ignore what Josh Allen has become. And now that he’s got a unit with Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Dawson Knox, Jamison Crowder, O.J. Howard, Duke Johnson, and Singletary, it makes sense why Josh Allen is favored to win NFL MVP. 

Oh, the leaps and bounds Josh Allen has made have been tremendous. And no, I’m not even talking about those crazy hurdles he’s become famous for.