Let’s take a closer look at the lines and odds for the Buffalo Bills in Week 6 against the Kansas City Chiefs.
After suffering defeat to the Tennessee Titans last week 42-16, Buffalo Bills‘ games remained perfect this season in cashing the over as 58 points sailed past the mark of 53. Covering the spread dropped to 3-2 in the defeat.
The NFL action rolls into its sixth week and the Buffalo Bills are home to take on the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday night. Sportsbooks across the country have revealed the odds for Week 6. According to The Action Network, the Buffalo Bills are home underdogs by 4.5 points while the Over is set at 57 currently.
The over of 57 is a new high for a Bills game topping the 2011 game against the New England Patriots.
We might have some #Bills history this week👀
— Nick Veronica (@NickVeronica) October 14, 2020
The largest point total Vegas has ever set for a Bills game is 54.5, per @Stathead. It was the 2011 Patriots game (both were 2-0).
I've been saying the Week 6 Bills-Chiefs game could surpass it. @TwitVI has the total opening at 55! pic.twitter.com/1054LWxkI2
Let’s analyze this week’s numbers and see how similar numbers have played out over the past few seasons versus the Kansas City Chiefs.
Buffalo Bills trends under head coach Sean McDermott
During the McDermott era, the Buffalo Bills have been home underdogs 11 times with the spread going 4-6-1. In 2017, the Bills +4, was the closest to this week’s spread which they covered and won the game outright against the Denver Broncos. All but two of the spreads were by single digits with those both coming in heavy defeats.
In these 11 games, they have come out on top three times with eight losses. Their biggest win as underdogs was the game against the Broncos in which they won by 10 points. The biggest loss as an underdog came in 2018 against the Chicago Bears losing 41-9.
The over is cashing for those 11 games a little better with a 5-6 record. The highest over was 49 points against the Patriots which didn’t cash as only 26 points were scored with the Bills losing 23-3 in 2017. The other five totals in the 40 point range went 2-3.
When the Bills upset the Jacksonville Jaguars the lowest total of 26 cashed in the 24-21 win.
Trends with Patrick Mahomes since 2018
Since the arrival of Patrick Mahomes onto the NFL scene the Chiefs have been road favorites eleven times. While the Chiefs have won nine of those games, the cover on the spread is at 6-5. Three times the spread was at 3.5 with the Chiefs covering, but when it was 5.5 they didn’t cover and lost the game.
Mahomes has been a double-digit road favorite once, -14.5, against the Las Vegas Raiders and they won 40-33, but no cover.
The over is also 6-5. Their highest during that span was 54.5 points against the Seattle Seahawks which cashed while the Chiefs lost. Five other games were in the 50 point range and the over cashed three times.