Let’s take a close look at the odds, lines, and trends for the Buffalo Bills ahead of Tuesday night’s matchup with the Tennessee Titans.
Once again the Buffalo Bills covered the spread in their win over the Las Vegas Raiders 30-23. Not only was the 3.5 spread covered, but the 53 points squeaked past the Over of 52.5. The Bills are now 3-1 covering the spread and the over is a perfect 4-0 in 2020.
The NFL action rolls into its fifth week and the Bills are traveling to take on the Tennessee Titans. Sportsbooks across the country have revealed the odds for Week 5. According to The Action Network, the Buffalo Bills are favored by 3.5 points while the Over is set at 53.
Let’s analyze those numbers and see how similar numbers have played out over the past few seasons versus the Titans.
Buffalo Bills trends under head coach Sean McDermott
Since the Bills numbers are becoming relatively the same each week as they continue to be favorites for such a few times up under McDermott, let’s start by analyzing the Bills on more than regular rest, which is six days.
Twice the Bills had seven days of rest with the first being in 2018. Coming off a Sunday game the Bills played on Monday night against the New England Patriots in Week 8. The other was in 2019 after a Saturday game they played the New York Jets the following Sunday in Week 17. Both the spread and over are 0-2 in those matchups. Being underdogs in both games the spread wasn’t close to being covered nor was the over missing both by at least two touchdowns. Not only was the spread not covered, but the Bills lost both as well.
Looking at when the team has nine days of rest coming off a Thursday night game, they went 0-1-1 against the spread and 1-1-0. Playing on extra rest against the New Orleans Saints in 2017, they failed to cover the 1.5 points, but the over of 48.5 cashed by 8.5 points. The other time was in 2019 against the Baltimore Ravens and while the spread of seven was a push the over of 43.5 missed by 9.5 points. The Buffalo Bills were again underdogs in both of those.
This week’s game will be played on eight days of rest and as favorites which makes this game hard to compare. We can analyze the Titans coming off a bye though as that is what is happening now in this game.
While winning all three games, the Titans are a perfect 3-0 against the spread and over since 2017. In one of those games they were the underdogs by 4.5 points which is only one point off from Tuesday’s game. The other two saw them as the favorites. The over was covered by two points in two of the games and 20 in the other.