This is a breakdown of the trends around the odds for the Buffalo Bills heading into their Week 4 matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders.
For those keeping score at home while the Buffalo Bills won against the Los Angeles Rams, they didn’t cover the spread rather getting a push as the line was three points. The over of 44.5 was easily cashed as the teams played out to 67 points in a thrilling 35-32 Bills win.
The NFL action rolls into its fourth week and the Bills are headed west to take on the Raiders. Sportsbooks across the country have revealed the odds for Week 4. According to The Action Network, the Buffalo Bills are favored by 2.5 points while the Over/Under is set at 49.5.
Let’s analyze those numbers and see how similar numbers have played out over the past few seasons versus the Raiders.
Buffalo Bills trends under head coach Sean McDermott
In the four seasons under McDermott, the Bills have been road favorites five times. While they won four of those they only covered three times. Of those five games, three were favorites by three points or less with the Bills covering twice.
Oddly enough of the five times they have been road favorites, three were against the Miami Dolphins when they covered two times while winning them all.
When the spread was 2.5, as it is currently for the Raiders, the Bills didn’t cover and lost the game against the New York Jets in 2017. Against the Dolphins in 2019 saw their biggest road favorite spread of 7.5 points which they covered in a 37-20 blowout win.
When the Bills have been road favorites the over is also 3-2. 44 points were the biggest over which did not cash against the New York Giants in 2019 as the score was 28-14. All five games had an over/under between 41 and 44 points.
Las Vegas Raiders trends since 2017 (McDermott era)
Since 2017, the Raiders have been home underdogs 13 times covering the spread of eight of those opportunities. Five of those were at three points or less with the Raiders covering four of those times.
In those 13 games, the over has cashed only six times. There were seven times the over was between 45 and 50, with the over cashing four of those times.