If the Buffalo Bills want to win the AFC East they will likely need to score over 400 points this season.
There is no question that the goal for the Buffalo Bills this season at a minimum should be a division title. The moves this offseason, specifically Tom Brady no longer in the division, combined with two playoff trips the past three years is setting them up to be in a great position to win their first division title since 1995.
However, if they hope to win the AFC East there is one stat that seems to be the greatest indicator that correlates with a division title. It shouldn’t be surprising but teams that score more points typically win more games but teams that score more than 400 points, averaging 25 or more points per game, in a season typically win their division.
Over the past three years, there has been only one division winner (2018 New York Giants) who didn’t break 400 points. In addition, there have been only five teams that scored over 400 points that didn’t win their division.
Can the Buffalo Bills break 400 points?
Unfortunately for the Buffalo Bills, it looks like they will need to score more than 400 points this season. This is a number they have struggled to surpass and they have not scored more than 400 points in a season since 1998.
The talent on this offense certainly has the potential to put up those types of totals this year. There is a balance of veterans like John Brown, Cole Beasley, and Stefon Diggs playing at a high level while there are younger pieces like Devin Singletary, Dawson Knox, and Josh Allen that fans have to hope can take that next step.
The question is can it all come together for this group in 2020? If it does, and they are able to put up more than 400 points, there is a great chance that the 2020 season will end with an AFC East division title.