What would it take for A.J. Epenesa to win Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2020?
After reviewing Zack Moss chances of winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year, it is now time to look at the other side of the ball. If the Buffalo Bills are going to have a player win Defensive Rookie of the Year, it would likely be their second round pick A.J. Epenesa.
The Bills didn’t have a first round pick but fortunately saw the former Iowa pass rusher fall during the NFL Draft and be available when they were on the clock. For Moss, he seems to have a better chance considering he plays a position that has won the award pretty frequently and has a clearer path to playing time.
This is not to say Epenesa won’t find playing time, the defensive end depth chart is veteran heavy at the top with Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison and Trent Murphy. In theory he will likely be the fourth option in that rotation but the team is trying to find ways to get him on the field by having him line up at all four positions along the defensive line.
There has been two defensive ends that have won the award recently with Nick Bosa winning last year and his older brother, Joey, winning in 2016. When looking at their snap counts, Nick Bosa played 76% of the defensive snaps last year and Joey Bosa played 53% of the defensive snaps in his rookie season.
For Epenesa to be in contention he will need to get on the field and play probably over 60% of the snaps. The depth the team has across the line it is hard to imagine that he will get to that number.
Playing time doesn’t automatically win the award and if Epenesa is productive in limited snaps it likely won’t matter. However, he will need to hit certain milestones based on the defensive ends that have won recently. Joey Bosa in his rookie season had 41 total tackles and 10.5 sacks while Nick Bosa had 47 total tackles but only 9 sacks.
The baseline seems to be at least 40 total tackles and close to double digit sacks. That double digit sack may be tough to come by based on recent performance by Buffalo Bills defenders. The last time the Bills had a defender break this mark was 2016 by Lorenzo Alexander, who finished with 12.5 sacks.
If there is going to be a Buffalo Bills player who will win the award, it seems like Zack Moss has a better chance with opportunity and the position he plays. However, A.J. Epenesa should not be counted out if all things fall into place for him this year.