Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans: Three keys to the game

BuffaLowDown’s DJ Eberle breaks down the Buffalo Bills’ Week 6 matchup against the Houston Texans, including the three keys to the game.

The Buffalo Bills have the opportunity to do what many thought would be improbable going into the season.

With a win on Sunday against the Houston Texans, the Bills can get to .500 through the first six games.

Not to mention, a victory in Houston would set up the Bills with a favorable matchup against the Indianapolis Colts next week and a chance to take a winning record into their October 29 Monday night matchup with the New England Patriots.

But before the Bills can even think about a winning record, they need to take care of business against a beatable Texans team.

Each week during the regular season this column will provide the three ways the Bills can secure a victory. So, without further ado, here are the Three Keys to the Game for the matchup against the Texans, which kicks off 1 p.m. Sunday at New Era Field on CBS.

Get after Deshaun Watson

Deshaun Watson is banged up.

It’s no secret. He was on the injury report all week and showed some serious signs of pain in his game last week.

While Watson has played well this season, his offensive line has not.

There isn’t a single starting offensive linemen that sports a 61 season-long grade from Pro Football Focus.

There is a clear advantage for the Bills in this matchup.

Houston has allowed 18 sacks this season. That’s good for a tie for third-most.

Whether it’s Jerry Hughes, Lorenzo Alexander, Trent Murphy or any of the other Buffalo pass rushers, there will be opportunities. The Bills need to take advantage of them so they can limit Watson’s effectiveness through the passing game.

Let Josh Allen loose

After his worst game as a pro, is this the game Josh Allen makes a statement?

It might be.

Houston’s defense against the pass is middle of the road and it doesn’t get much pressure despite its big names along the front seven.

They don’t need to be a bunch of deep shots, but Brian Daboll needs to turn Allen loose a little.

Accumulating just 82 passing yards isn’t going to win a lot of games.

The Bills need to design more plays for LeSean McCoy, getting him out wide and allowing him to make guys miss.

McCoy’s pass-catching ability was a catalyst for the Bills game-winning drive last Sunday. He needs to be used more often.

Charles Clay has to be a factor as well.

After hauling in a pass in the first half against the Tennessee Titans, Clay was nowhere to be found the final 30 minutes.

That can’t happen.

Clay is still a talented tight end in this league and has the ability to be a mismatch against tight ends and slot corners.

Like they say, tight ends are rookie quarterbacks’ best friends.

Not to mention, Houston’s two starting cornerbacks, Jonathan Joseph and Shareece Wright, can be picked apart.

"“Although the Texans have struggled to apply pressure, main culprit is related to their inability to cover for an extended amount of time, as they have faced one of the lowest time to their in the NFL through five weeks,” writes PFF’s Eric Eager and Ben Brown."

Both boundary corners have earned 60s on PFF.

Take away Houston’s running game

You take away Watson and you know what you’re left with? A mediocre running game.

Watson has rushed for 201 yards this season. The rest of the team has rushed for 300.

Without Watson, the Texans’ run game would rank near the bottom of the league.

With so many weapons in the passing game, there’s a good chance one of DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller V or Keke Coutee will get theirs on Sunday. Likely Fuller or Coutee because Tre’Davious White will shut down Hopkins like he has every other No. 1 target this season.

That means Buffalo must limit the run game and make the Texans one-dimensional.

Lamar Miller is expected to return on Sunday after sitting out last week with a chest injury.

While he hasn’t been very effective, Miller is still the lone back that should scare the Buffalo defense.

If the Bills can shut down Watson and Miller, they’ll be on the path to yet another upset.

Prediction: Bills 17, Texans 13

The 10-point spread in Houston’s favor is borderline outrageous.

The Buffalo defense is going to keep this game close.

While the Texans offense is full of potential, it has put up 22 or fewer points against the Patriots, Titans and Dallas Cowboys.

Each of those three defenses are worse than the Bills.

Allen and Co. will make just enough plays to squeak another win out.