The Buffalo Bills are expected to go after a top rookie quarterback in the 2018 NFL Draft, but that became harder after the recent move made by the Jets.
The draft pick market has been set. Indianapolis fetched a haul for their top-three pick and New York paid the above market value price.
Now the Buffalo Bills may be on the outside looking in when it comes to a top quarterback.
The Jets gave up the No. 6 overall pick and three seconds to climb three spots in the draft. According to Jimmy Johnson’s trade value chart (pictured below), the Jets gave 35 percent above market value in draft capital to solidify the trade.
https://twitter.com/mickey_canuck/status/975843759194697729
Based on this information the Buffalo Bills would have to give up a haul and a half to acquire a top-two pick. The new inflated price for the top two picks sits at 4,050 for the top spot and 3,510 for the second.
As it sits right now Buffalo has 3,123 points worth of capital in the first four rounds of the 2018 draft. It’s possible that Cleveland or New York would have interest in taking that price considering it is technically still above the price set by Johnson’s chart. But considering the Colts received so much more than the asking price, expect the Browns and Giants to try for the same.
If that is the case, is it worth it for Buffalo to move up?
To get to the elusive 4,000 value it would cost the Bills all seven of their picks in the first four rounds and an additional first next season.
That’s an extremely hefty price to pay for Buffalo.
With no clear-cut top quarterback prospect in this year’s draft, maybe Buffalo shouldn’t move up after all. There’s a collection of quality QBs with franchise-changing qualities, but each has their fair share of skepticism as well.
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That remains true whether they want to go with more pro-ready options in Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen, or a project quarterback with high upside in Josh Allen. Who knows, heck, Baker Mayfield could be a fine selection as well.
Given the uncertainty surrounding the quarterback class and how closely rated these arms are, Buffalo should avoid paying the absurd price tag to try to move ahead of the Jets.
Rarely do teams make the right choice to overpay for draft picks. Just ask the Washington Redskins who gave up three first-rounders and a second to move up four spots in 2012 to select Robert Griffin III.
The Rams wound up with eight players from the deal, including Michael Brockers, Alec Ogletree, and former Pro-Bowler Janoris Jenkins. Griffin, on the other hand, isn’t even in the league anymore.
Buffalo can’t afford to make that mistake and if the team is banking on a player reaching his ceiling rather than his floor, it could be ugly in a few years. Not all GMs can get lucky with a Carson Wentz-type trade.
There are still a couple of quality options beyond the top-10 if the Bills elect to stay put at No. 12 and No. 22.
Lamar Jackson could be a target at No. 12. Based on how well Deshaun Watson played last season, maybe the Bills pull the trigger on the Louisville passer. But given how the Tyrod Taylor situation ended, it seems like Buffalo would rather a pocket passer, as opposed to an athletic freak.
Perhaps they take Mason Rudolph with the second first-rounder (No. 22). He’s got one of the strongest arms in the draft and has an impressive deep ball. He’s also built like a prototypical quarterback at 6-foot-5, 235 pounds. Sit him behind AJ McCarron for a couple of years and see if he can be groomed into a franchise QB.
For Buffalo, signing the 27-year-old from Cincinnati for two years affords the Bills the ability to wait and see. If the quarterback the organization covets isn’t available when they pick this year, the 2019 draft class could be an option.
Next: 2018 full first-round mock draft 2.0
Buffalo has just over a month to go before the draft and they’re sitting pretty with a bunch of draft capital to move up. But is there a quarterback in this class that is worth the number of high picks it will cost to land in the top-two? I’ll leave that question to you, Bills Mafia.