It will cost a ton for Buffalo Bills to move up in 2018 NFL Draft

The cost of moving up to the top four draft picks for the Buffalo Bills

To recap, the Bears moved up 1 spot from No. 3 to No. 2. The price of doing that cost them two third round picks and a fourth round pick.  The Rams moved up 14 spots from No. 15 to No. 1 and received a 4th round pick and a 6th round pick. In order to do that they had to forfeit an additional 1st round pick, two second round picks and two third round picks.

In order to move up six slots from No. 8 to No. 2 the Eagles gave up an additional 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick in addition to swapping 4th round picks with the Browns. Meanwhile, Washington moved up four spots from No. 6 to No. 2 and traded away two additional first round picks and a second round pick.

Now that we have seen what other teams have traded to move up it seems pretty clear the Bills will have to part with some serious draft capital if they want to move up in 2018. In order to project the value of what their picks will be worth, I made the assumption that the Bills, Eagles, Rams and Chiefs will all draft in the same order next year.

Buffalo Bills

For the Bills to move up to the No. 1 overall spot in 2018, they would need to send whatever team holds the pick at least 3,000 points worth of draft picks if not more. In order to do that they could give up their No. 10 overall 1st round pick, No. 27 overall 1st round pick from the Chiefs, No. 37 overall 2nd round pick from the Rams and the No. 42 overall 2nd round pick of the Bills. In total this would equal 2,990 points worth of reciprocal picks. This means the cost of moving up to No. 1 would be at least two first round picks and two second round picks.

If the Bills want to move up to the No. 2 overall spot in 2018, they would need to send whatever team holds the pick at least 2,600 points worth of draft picks. In order to do that they could give up their No. 10 overall 1st round pick, No. 27 overall 1st round pick from the Chiefs, No. 37 overall 2nd round pick from the Rams and the No. 106 overall 4th round pick of Buffalo. In total this would equal 2,592 points worth of reciprocal picks. To move to No. 2 overall the Bills would give up two 1st round picks, a 2nd round pick and a 4th round pick.

To move up to the No. 3 overall in 2018 they would need to send whatever team holds that pick at least 2,200 points worth of draft picks. In order to do that they could give up their No. 10 overall 1st round pick, No. 27 overall 1st round pick from the Chiefs, and the No. 74 overall 3rd round pick of Buffalo. In total giving up two 1st round picks and a 3rd round pick would equal 2,200 points based on the draft pick trade value chart.

Lastly, for the Bills to move up to the No. 4 overall spot in 2018, they would need to send whatever team holds that pick at least 1,800 points worth of draft picks. To do that they could give up their No. 10 overall 1st round pick, the No. 42 overall 2nd round pick of Buffalo and the No. 165 overall fifth round pick from the Rams. In total this would equal 1,805.4 points worth of reciprocal picks. This means to move up to No. 4 the Bills would be giving up a 1st, 2nd and 5th round pick. However, based on prior trades it would probably be even more than this.

This analysis shows that Buffalo certainly has the draft capital to move up to any spot they wish in next years draft should they choose to do so. The real question becomes is it worth that cost when the player drafted could just as easily be a bust as they could be a franchise quarterback. Also, keep in mind that these estimates for the overall picks will change once the compensatory picks are figured out. This will push many of Buffalo’s draft spots lower meaning they will need to give up more than this.

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So now that you have a clearer picture of what the Buffalo Bills would need to give up next year, do you still think it would be worth it to take a chance on a franchise quarterback?