Sep 28, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Buffalo Bills head coach Doug Marrone during the second quarter against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. The Texans defeated the Bills 23-17. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Are the Buffalo Bills good enough to win the AFC East? Some people think that even though New England is struggling, they are still the team to beat in the East. Others are saying that the Bills are the favorites to win the East. Are the Bills that good or is it that the division has fallen that far?
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Football Outsiders is a group that calculates the odds of winning through simulating 50,000 season outcomes per week based on the previous record. According to the football outsiders, the Buffalo Bills, currently, are the favorites to win the division averaging 8.4 games won for the season. The New England Patriots are next winning 8 games this season. The Miami Dolphins follow winning an average of 7.4 games for the year and the New York Jets bring up the rear with an average win of 5.9 for the season.
They have the Bills winning the division by a percentage of 44.4%. New England is next at 31.3%, Miami at 18.1% and the Jets at 6.1% to win the division.
They also calculate the percentages for a bye and the Bills have the outright lead there as well punching in with a 12.5% of a bye week. The rest of the division comes in the same order as before with a 5.0%, 2.1% and a 0.3% chance for the Jets to have a bye in the first week of the playoffs.
They also have calculated the percents to winning a wild card game and the total percentage of a playoff birth. As for the wild card game, the Bills are sitting with a 3.5% chance while the Patriots and Dolphins are both sitting with a 4.9% chance of making the wild card and winning the game. The Jets are sitting with a 1.2% chance for a wild card.
As far as overall playoff birth in any possible way, Buffalo is sitting with a 47.9% chance, the Patriots with a 36.2% chance, the Dolphins with a 23.0% chance and the Jets with a 7.4% chance.
Odds say that the Bills will make the playoffs this year. It is all in their hands. Don’t shoot yourselves in the foot.