BLD Picks The AFC and NFC Championship Games Against the Spread


Let’s be real: a lot of people love football because it’s the easiest and funnest sport to gamble on. And there’s nothing wrong with that. Personally, I’m too broke to gamble much, but I sure do watch a lot of football. I figure I should help* my loyal readers out with some gambling advice. 

*Help not guaranteed to be actually helpful.

Well, at the very least I’m going to finish in the black this playoffs.

That’s right, I’m 6-2 through the first two rounds with just three playoff games left. I’d recommend you keep letting Brad win you money.

Also, there’s this: Guess who got a score prediction EXACTLY correct last week? From last week’s column:

"PATRIOTS (-13.5) over BroncosI would have taken the Pats even if this line was four points higher. I think the Pats will come out looking to make a statement in this one. The past two years of playoff failures have been eating away at Brady and Co., no doubt, and they’ll be looking to cleanse those feelings with a beat-down of an inferior team. And a beatdown it will be. Look for Belichick to run up the score here..Prediction: Patriots 45, Broncos 10"

This week is trickier, but I’m feeling good about these picks.

Let’s get straight to it.

49ERS (-2.5) over Giants

Definitely the tougher of the two games to call. But I’m thinking this game comes down to two things: 1) Can the 49ers get pressure on Eli Manning? and 2) Will Alex Smith continue to play well against a furious Giants pass rush?

I think yes on  both counts. The 49ers seem to just have the magic this season. Somehow, someway they find a way to win. But if they let Eli Manning have time to throw, he’s going to make them pay, and this pick will look silly.

Prediction: 49ers 23, Giants 20

And now…

*Note: don’t take the word “Lock” too seriously.

PATRIOTS (-7) over Ravens

I despise the Patriots, so this kills me…but they’re the better team. By a lot. Two big problems with picking the Ravens: the Baltimore defense isn’t as good as its reputation, and the New England defense isn’t nearly as bad as its reputation. If there’s a way to beat the Patriots, you need a great pass rush and a quarterback who can punish the shaky Patriot secondary. The Ravens have neither.

Prediction: Patriots 34, Ravens 17

Last Week: 2-2

Playoffs: 6-2

Regular Season: 43-38-4

Lock of the Week: 13-6 (2-0 in the playoffs)