Following one of the roughest weeks of the season for Buffalo Bills fans, Week 13 kicks off with Thanksgiving football. The Bills sit at the #7 seed, on the fringes of playoff positioning, and it's a fierce race. Buffalo sits 2.5 games back in the AFC East, only one game above the rest of 'The Hunt'. The Chiefs, Steelers, and Texans are all hot on their tails. Buffalo could ascend or drop in any week, at any moment. The playoffs are a privilege most teams don't see.
However, until the Buffalo Bills are mathematically eliminated from the battle for the #1 seed, that will be the goal. With that in mind, this is what Bills fans should root for in Week 13.
AFC Playoff Race
East | West | South | North |
|---|---|---|---|
10-2 Patriots (1) | 9-2 Broncos (2) | 8-3 Colts (3) | 6-5 Ravens (4) |
7-4 Bills (7) | 7-4 Chargers (6) | 7-4 Jaguars (5) | 6-5 Steelers |
4-7 Dolphins | 6-5 Chiefs | 6-5 Texans | 3-8 Bengals |
2-9 Jets | 2-9 Raiders | 1-10 Titans | 3-8 Browns |
Thanksgiving Slate
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions - 1:00pm
When the NFC plays the NFC, as they always do on Thanksgiving, it only matters to Buffalo in terms of strength of schedule (SoS) tiebreakers. The Packers (7-3) benefit the Ravens, Broncos, and Steelers with a win.
The Lions (7-4) benefit the Ravens, Chiefs, and Steelers with a win. With two out of three benefactors being the same, we simply have to decide who we would prefer gain a miniscule advantage: Denver or Kansas City. Buffalo already beat the Chiefs had-to-head, so the tiebreaker is moot. Down with Denver.
Interest: Packers win
Kansas City Chiefs @ Dallas Cowboys - 4:30pm
This is an obvious one. The reigning AFC champion Chiefs (6-5) are right behind the Bills, who own the least secure playoff spot in the NFL. The Cowboys (5-5-1) are competitive, but still very much in the NFC. Some thing need little explanation.
Interest: Cowboys win
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens - 8:20pm
Buffalo has a head-to-head win against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens (6-5) in Week 1, but they're still a threat. The Ravens are currently leading the AFC North, with the potential to host Buffalo in the playoffs; It's not a favourable matchup. The Bills would rather play the Steelers, who are in hot pursuit. The Bengals (3-8), as good as they can be, aren't a playoff contending team this season, despite the impending return of Joe Burrow. Root for the underdog, it can only help the Bills here.
Interest: Bengals win
Friday Football
Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles - 3:00pm
This is a thrilling matchup on paper, with 2 of the top 3 teams in the NFC going head-to-head. The winners take essentially a two-game lead on their primary competition. Still, it's NFC vs. NFC- Usual rules apply.
The Eagles (8-3) schedule includes the Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers, and Bills. The Bears (8-3) includes the Ravens and Steelers. Buffalo currently leads the Broncos and Chargers in SoS, and have the tiebreaker over the Chiefs. The Ravens and Steelers are ahead of the Bills in that stat, leaving the path ahead clear.
Interest: Eagles win
Early Sunday Window
San Francisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns - 1:00pm
The Browns (3-8) may be one of the worst teams in the AFC, but they are still technically in playoff contention. The 49ers (8-4) are third in their division despite the 4th-best record in the NFC. Still, they are in the NFC, and Cleveland isn't out just yet.
Interest: 49ers win
L.A. Rams @ Carolina Panthers - 1:00pm
The Panthers (6-6) face the Bills, Patriots, and Jaguars. The #1 NFC seed Rams (9-2) face the Texans, Colts, Ravens, and Jaguars. It's NFC vs. NFC, and the SoS helps the Bills more with a Panthers victory.
Interest: Panthers win
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans - 1:00pm
The Jaguars (7-4) are the 6th seed in the AFC, ahead of Week 13 and the Thanksgiving slate. They seem like the odd team out in terms of legitimacy as a playoff threat, but they're ahead of Buffalo right now. The Titans (1-10) are obviously the favourites for the #1 overall pick in 2026, but winning this divisional matchup would clear some room for the Bills to breathe.
Interest: Titans win
Arizona Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 1:00pm
NFC vs. NFC, so we're right back to strength of schedule. The Cardinals (3-8) play the Texans, Jaguars, and Colts. The Buccaneers (6-5) play the Texans, Patriots, and Bills. The battle with New England won't come down to SoS, but Buffalo can boost their standing slightly with that Buccaneers win. Anything to separate themselves from the pack around them is a boon for the Bills.
Interest: Buccaneers win
Late Sunday Window
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks - 4:05pm
Staying on the NFC, we must stick with SoS. The Seahawks (8-3) play the Steelers, Jaguars, Texans, and Colts. The Vikings (4-7) played the Ravens, Chargers, and Steelers this season. Every team but the Chargers and Colts are ahead of the Bills in this potentially decisive tiebreaker. A Vikings win benefits the fewest of them.
Interest: Vikings win
Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers - 4:25pm
Perhaps it defeats the point to explain, but the Bills (7-4) are who we want to win. The Steelers (6-5) are the 9th seed, and right behind the Bills. A win would make a one-game lead into a three-game lead, a loss would remove the Bills from playoff positioning. You don't need to be told to root for the Bills.
Interest: Bills win
Las Vegas Raiders @ L.A. Chargers - 4:25pm
The Chargers (7-4), sitting in the #5 seed, are one of two wild card teams ahead of Buffalo. Their impending divisional game against the Raiders (2-9) won't send sparks flying, but it does give a clear choice for who to root for. Los Angeles are competition for the Bills at best; A threat at worst. A loss on their record is only good for Buffalo.
Interest: Raiders win
Sunday Night Football
Denver Broncos @ Washington Commanders - 8:20pm
This is another classic case of NFC team of little standing vs. AFC team that Buffalo needs to lose. The #1 seed is in play, and the the Broncos (9-2) are the #2 seed. One of several obstacles to the Bills taking home the playoff hosting gig is Denver. Can the rather unbeguiling Commanders (3-8) do them a favour? Perhaps not, but this is not a predictions piece. Root for the Commies.
Interest: Commanders win
Monday Night Football
New York Giants @ New England Patriots - 8:15pm
The Giants (2-10) are unlikely heroes here, as the Patriots (10-2) begin to pull away with the AFC East. The #1 seed is still within reach for the weakened Bills, but this game represents the help they need if thy intent to actually secure it.
A perfect weekend for the Bills ends with them one game back from the AFC's top spot; This game is pivotal to that goal. After this, the Patriots rest for their bye and then face the Bills, Ravens, Jets, and Dolphins. There are few opportunities remaining to catch New England sleeping.