For the better part of the last half-decade, the Bills have been synonymous with sustainable success, elite quarterback play, and perennial Super Bowl aspirations. They have not only been consistent winners in the regular season, but a fixture in January football -- six consecutive playoff berths dating back to 2019, two AFC Championship appearances (2020, 2024), and a roster headlined by an NFL MVP in Josh Allen, who has become one of the most dynamic playmakers in football since his arrival from Wyoming years ago.
Allen’s ascension from raw 2018 prospect to one of the sport’s most devastating offensive weapons has been the engine behind Buffalo’s rise from irrelevance to contender. Yet with the Bills sitting at 7–4 in 2025, their division no longer a guaranteed runway, and the AFC hosting an increasingly deep cluster of superstar quarterbacks, the question hangs heavier than ever: Is Buffalo’s Super Bowl window closing -- or has it already closed in it's entirety?
The answer requires looking beyond this season’s standings, beyond the latest heartbreak, and into the identity of a franchise that has remained on the doorstep of a Lombardi Trophy for longer than any team in football.
Allen’s Brilliance Is the Foundation -- but Also the Pressure Valve
For all of Buffalo’s organizational strengths, nothing defines the franchise more than its quarterback. Allen has been everything for the Bills -- playmaker, lifeline, culture-setter, and walking mismatch. His statistical dominance underscores just how competitive this team has been year over year:
- 2nd in points (2020)
- 3rd in points (2021)
- 2nd in points (2022)
- 6th in points (2023)
- 2nd in points (2024)
- 5th in points and 3rd in yards in 2025 (so far)
Across multiple shifting offensive lines, and continuous skill-position turnover, Allen has kept Buffalo a top-tier offense. Every season he elevates, adapts, and improvises in a way that only a handful of quarterbacks in league history have been able to sustain.
But therein lies the hidden challenge: Buffalo’s success is increasingly dependent on Allen being superhuman. When he is historic, Buffalo looks like a contender. When he is merely excellent, the margins tighten around a roster that has been steadily retooled rather than aggressively reinforced.
The Defense Has Been Elite -- But Not Always When It Matters Most
Buffalo’s defensive résumé during the McDermott era is as impressive as any franchise in football:
#1 in points and yards (2021)
#2 in points / #6 in yards (2022)
#4 in points / #9 in yards (2023)
The 2025 rankings --16th in points, 13th in yards -- are a step back, but not catastrophic. Injuries, aging veterans, and schematic reshuffling have produced inconsistency, especially in games where Buffalo has needed timely stops, like it's most recent performance against Houston and backup QB Davis Mills.
The bigger theme is that the Bills have consistently fielded top-tier defenses, yet their postseason exits often hinge on a key late-game stand they could not make -- especially against the quarterback who has become their defining obstacle: No. 15 in Kansas City.
Buffalo hasn’t lost because they fell apart; they’ve lost because they’ve run into Mahomes, a buzzsaw of their modern dynasty. But contending windows don’t stay open just because a team is good -- they stay open when a team is good, and improving.
The AFC Has Never Been This Crowded
A major variable in answering the window question is simply this: while the AFC this fall isn't as competitive as years prior, looking ahead, it looks deeper than at any point during Buffalo’s rise over the last few seasons.
Buffalo no longer towers over its division -- New England under Mike Vrabel is ascending, finally pairing a physical identity with a franchise quarterback in Drake Maye who has taken a year-two leap into the “next great AFC passer” conversation.
And as you pull the lens back, the obstacles multiply:
Patrick Mahomes -- still the standard.
Lamar Jackson -- still an MVP-level weapon in Baltimore.
Joe Burrow -- when healthy, Cincinnati can outscore anyone.
Justin Herbert -- zero playoff wins, but looks revitalized under new leadership with a stable core.
Daniel Jones -- loaded correlating surroundings.
Bo Nix -- youth-infused game manager that can rely on an elite defense, who already has playoff experience.
In earlier years, the Bills often entered seasons as the second-best team in the conference. Today, they are still elite -- but no longer alone in that tier.
Roster Evolution Has Been Necessary -- but costly
Since 2020, Buffalo has undergone multiple mini-rebuilds without ever bottoming out. That alone is an organizational success story, but also one that stretches the limits of sustainability.
Key veterans from the early McDermott era have aged out, or been moved. Some draft picks have become starters out of necessity, rather than luxury. Contracts have been restructured, and faces have inherently changed in all three phases both on and off the field.
While the Bills have navigated this far better than most teams do, one truth remains: Buffalo has not been able to replenish the roster at the same rate it has lost talent.
That doesn’t close a window outright -- but it narrows it.
So Is the Window Closed? Not Yet -- but It’s No Longer Wide Open
The answer is not binary. Buffalo’s window is not closed, but it is no longer the wide-open runway it was from 2020 to 2022.
Why it’s still open comes down to three main factors:
- Josh Allen. As long as he’s in his prime, Buffalo begins every season as a legitimate threat.
- Consistent offensive identity. The Bills rarely have off-years; even amid change, they produce points.
- Organizational stability. McDermott’s teams win -- almost always.
Why it’s narrowing:
- The AFC’s quarterback renaissance. Allen is elite, but so are many others.
- Declining defensive dominance. What was once a staple is now inconsistent.
- An arms race around them. Teams like Kansas City, Baltimore, Cincinnati, and the Chargers have kept their cores intact -- or improved them.
Buffalo is competing in a conference where standing still means falling behind, and the Bills of 2025 are neither collapsing, nor clearly ascending. They are good enough to beat anyone, yet not complete enough to be favored over everyone.
That is the hallmark of a narrowing window.
The Bottom Line
The Bills’ Super Bowl window isn’t closed -- not with Josh Allen in his peak and an offense still positioned among the league’s best. But to keep that window cracked open beyond 2025, Buffalo must take advantage of this season while simultaneously reloading their roster with the urgency of a team that understands opportunities in the NFL are fleeting.
The league is faster now, younger now, and more quarterback-rich than at any time in recent memory.
To survive in that landscape, Buffalo must evolve again.
The window is still there, but it’s no longer something they can take for granted. One more year without breaking through, and it may become the thing Bills fans fear most: a memory rather than a path.