Projecting Dalton Kincaid's 2024 stats with Buffalo Bills

Can the second-year tight end insert himself into the top five conversation?
Buffalo Bills v Cincinnati Bengals
Buffalo Bills v Cincinnati Bengals / Dylan Buell/GettyImages

When the Buffalo Bills traded up in the 2023 NFL Draft to acquire Dalton Kincaid, there was confusion as to what Brandon Beane was up to. Veteran tight end Dawson Knox had just been given a four-year contract extension prior to the 2022 season and the Bills had other pressing needs. Instead, Beane opted to go with the best player available in Kincaid. While tight end may not have been the most popular pick, Kincaid was viewed as the best tight end in that draft class so giving Josh Allen another weapon was not the worst idea.

In an offense that went through its ups and downs, Kincaid progressed upwards each week. He finished in the top ten in terms of receiving yards at the tight end position, and second in rookie tight ends behind only Sam LaPorta. Buffalo’s offense in the first half of the season was so focused on getting the ball to Stefon Diggs, Kincaid still managed to find a role in the Bills’ offense. He was targeted 91 times and managed to reel in 73 receptions for 673 yards and two touchdowns.

The Bills’ offense is going to look different next season, more than it ever has in awhile. There is reason to believe that Kincaid will be Josh Allen’s favorite target in the passing game. In the last four games of Buffalo’s season (including both playoff games), Kincaid had no less than five targets and averaged 16 yards per reception during that stretch. 

As it stands, the Bills do not have a clear cut number one receiver and there is no reason why Kincaid can’t become Buffalo’s version of Travis Kelce. He has taken over the starting role from Dawson Knox and is more of a receiving threat than Knox. Kincaid surpassed 600 receiving yards in his rookie year, while Knox has yet to reach 600 yards in a season. 

It is hard to make a bold prediction that Kincaid will be the best tight end in 2024, but he has the ceiling to put himself into the conversation as one of the best in the game early on in his career. He has built up great chemistry with Allen and he thrived once Joe Brady took over the offense. Bills fans should be excited to see the second-year tight end grow and be recognized as a top tight end in the league.

Stats projections: 105 targets, 80 receptions, 1,050 yards, 5 touchdowns