Predicting where Dalton Kincaid finishes in fantasy football in 2023

NFLPA Rookie Premiere Portrait Session
NFLPA Rookie Premiere Portrait Session / Michael Owens/GettyImages

When the Buffalo Bills traded up for tight end Dalton Kincaid out of Utah in the NFL Draft, there was speculation of heads turning in confusion rather than excitement. It’s not that Kincaid was not a good pick, but it was a pick that Bills fans may not have been expecting. Dawson Knox had just signed a four-year contract extension at the beginning of the 2022 season that is worth over $53 million which included $31 million guaranteed. It made him the sixth highest paid tight end in the NFL. If a player gets that type of deal, there usually should not be competition at the position. 

On the logistics part of Kincaid, he is arguably the best tight end that was drafted this year and at the time, was labeled as the best player available which is sometimes better than reaching for a position of need. Kincaid was dominant at Utah his last season there (890 yards for 8 touchdowns off of 70 catches). Not to mention, Kincaid absolutely dominated USC with 16 catches for 234 yards and a touchdown. He is more of a receiver than a blocking tight end which gives him good fantasy value going into this season. 

In a pass-first offense, Kincaid is walking into a great situation for himself with Josh Allen as his quarterback. In addition, aside from Stefon Diggs, Kincaid could set himself up to be the potential number two target for Allen. He has been turning heads for the better in training camp and has shown off his impressive route-running abilities and to break off in the open field. With him making a splash so far in training camp, there is reason to believe that he will serve as a valuable weapon in the Bills offense. 

Predicting Dalton Kincaid’s 2023 stats this season

Whether or not the Bills go with a two-tight end set, Kincaid should be featured off the line of scrimmage next to the tackle, or even in the slot. His comparison so far is having Travis Kelce-like abilities. It seems as if Kincaid is more of a receiver than a tight end. With the tight end position not as deep in the NFL, with only three true stars at the position, Kincaid has a lot of value that he can provide and show the rest of the league, especially with one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. 

While Kincaid will not be the number one target down the field for Allen, he has a great chance to be the number one target in the red zone to score touchdowns. 

Kincaid has potential to finish as a top ten tight end in fantasy, he will just need to get his targets and may have to compete with Knox for those targets. Knox has only had one season where he was targeted in the red zone more than ten times. With Kincaid starting out his career, he will have an opportunity to pass those numbers and secure six points for the Bills. 

Prediction: Kincaid finishes the 2023 season as a top ten fantasy tight end option and six receiving touchdowns.