The Jacksonville Jaguars have been something of a nuisance to the Buffalo Bills. In their last two meetings, Jacksonville has done damage. They derailed a successful 2021 season, beating the Bills 9-6 and ultimately putting them on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs in the postseason. In 2023, Buffalo flew to London to play the Jaguars and lost 25-20, costing Matt Milano his season and forcing the Bills to play without DaQuan Jones for much of the year also. That loss put the Bills against the Chiefs in the playoffs again, but without their star linebacker. In neither year did the Jaguars manage to make a playoff spot, but in both they played spoiler.
Where We Stand
Now, the Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-2, a mark only 11% of teams have been able to make the playoffs from. Do they play spoiler again? These Jaguars may not seem scary, but in reality they are but a play or two away from being 2-0. At this early mark in a season, the team record is a poor indicator of quality, so let's look at the games. They outplayed the Browns by every metric in Week 2, but allowed three 4th down conversions to lose the game. Against the Dolphins in Week 1, the Jags were shut out in the second half but locked down defensively, and would have won if not for an 80-yard breakaway TD by Tyreek Hill. They aren't winning games, but they bear the marks of a solid defensive unit that can put a cap on most offenses.
The Bills are much more comfortable, but they aren't making things easy. This team might be 2-0, but the Arizona Cardinals were able to move the ball well against them, and Miami had success until their third untimely turnover against the Buffalo defense. In order to put the league on notice by going 3-0, there's work to be done. They can start by doing what they did this offseason; Shutting out some old friends.
Prediction #1 - Gabe Davis A Non-Factor
This isn't a revenge game per se, as there's no bad blood, but multiple former Buffalo Bills will be on the field for Jacksonville on Monday. Mitch Morse, the Jags starting center, and WR Gabe Davis, who gave the Bills some prolific moments. Davis won't be having those moments this time.
In 2024, Gabe Davis leads the Jaguars in targets, and is tied first for catches. His effectiveness on deep routes and against the sideline is well known, but there's little reason to believe he'll excel in his return home. The Bills have shut down all outside targets this season, and their cornerbacks have played especially well against bigger, more physical receivers. Speed is where this team struggles to cover, and Jacksonville doesn't have it in Gabe Davis. Others may be able to exploit the Bills' fresh safety duo and get past their corners, but not Gabe. This simply won't be his night.
Prediction #2 - Buffalo Stout Vs. The Run
According to recent reports, Jaguars TE Evan Engram is not expected to take the field. His importance to the offense is notable, as his performance blocking and catching in the short game opens the field for a lot of his teammates.
Jags HC Doug Pederson said at press conference Sat. that TE Evan Engram “is probably not going to make it” for Monday night’s game against the #Bills. DB Darnell Savage sounds like more of a game time decision. RB Tank Bigsby is expected to play. #JAXvsBUF
— Chris Brown (@ChrisBrownBills) September 21, 2024
With him out of the picture, Jacksonville won't be able to extort the Bills' battered linebacker group. The defensive line in Buffalo has been highly effective start the year; The unremarkable Jacksonville 5 (linemen) will struggle outside against the combo of Greg Rousseau, Von Miller, and A.J. Epenesa. Ed Oliver's pressure through the middle and the space-eating qualities of many other DTs should force Jacksonville to run outside, where the unrestricted Buffalo linebackers can make plays.
Prediction #3 - Final Score
It's not going to be easy. The Bills have weaknesses much like the Jaguars do, and it would discredit the opposition to believe they won't find ways to move the ball well. Still, Buffalo has found ways to make big plays on defense time and time again this season, and the offense has kept playing within the grooves of success.
Prediction: Buffalo Bills beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 24 - 16.
The Buffalo Bills go 3-0, and drop the Jacksonville Jaguars to 0-3. This season simply hasn't started the way many expected for the Jags, and the Bills are doing just fine.