The NFL Playoffs aren’t set in stone just yet, but with Week 16 in the books, the field is becoming much clearer for the Buffalo Bills. The Bills know the field will be more favorable without having to contend with Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, or Lamar Jackson, but that doesn’t grant them a free pass to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LX either.
That said, the path to the Super Bowl through the AFC is an interesting one that will present Buffalo with new challenges. Chief among them (no pun intended) is that Buffalo will have to do the early portions, at least, on the road - unless the New England Patriots drop one of their last two games and the Bills win out.
With slim odds to win the AFC East, though, the Bills will likely settle in as the 5-seed and play their first game of the 2025 postseason on the road. The Bills haven’t won a road playoff game since 1993, before your writer here was even born, but there’s reason to feel confident the franchise can get that monkey off its back in their projected Wild Card playoff matchup.
Buffalo Bills likely headed for Wild Card rematch based on projections
After Week 16, the Bills are positioned in the 6-seed, which would send them to the 3-seed’s stadium in the Wild Card round. That doesn’t align with the probabilities, though. PlayoffStatus.com does the math for calculating the probable landing spots in the bracket for each team. The Bills have a 53% chance of getting the 5-seed according to their data.
As for the 4-seed, the Pittsburgh Steelers are practically locked into the spot witha 98% chance of taking the final division championship seed. If that’s how it plays out, the Bills will be headed back to the Steel City just a month and change removed from Buffalo’s 26-7 drubbing in Week 13.
While Buffalo hasn’t won a road playoff game in 32 years, at least Buffalo has recent postseason success. The Steelers haven’t won a postseason game since 2016, putting the franchise in its longest playoff win drought of the Super Bowl era.
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Buffalo is well-suited to keep that drought alive, having already rushed for an Acrisure Stadium opponent record 249 yards in their last meeting. Like Buffalo, the Steelers don’t have much of a downfield passing game, so it comes down to which team can run the ball effectively and stop the run.
For what it’s worth, the Steelers did just hold the Lions to 15 yards rushing last Sunday, while the Bills struggled to stop Cleveland’s rushing attack, allowing 160 yards despite Quinshon Judkins leaving the game halfway through due to a devastating leg injury.
Without a doubt, a rematch between the Bills and Steelers wouldn’t play out exactly the same again. Both teams have gotten healthier in some spots and lost pieces in others. The Steelers haven’t lost since the Buffalo game, so they could have more momentum, too, if that holds through the end of the season.
Of course, that’s just based on the probabilities. The Bills still have a 25% chance to get the 6-seed and a less than 10% chance of getting a top-3 seed. How the AFC East unfolds and how the Los Angeles Chargers finish, who holds a tiebreaker over Buffalo, will help shape the field and determine where Buffalo will play their first matchup of the 2025 postseason.