Should the Buffalo Bills stay put with their No. 26 overall pick, Bills Mafia expects general manager Brandon Beane to bring in a difference maker, either on offense in the form of an explosive wideout or on defense, either for a starting inside linebacker or a high-upside pass rusher.
Each of those positions has some depth in the late stages of the first round into Round 2, so the Bills will have some promising options.
But of course, that late in the first round and a deeper position, the odds of drafting a dud only increase. The Bills need to know which players to avoid if they are still on the board at No. 26, and one such prospect might fit that criteria.
Missouri's Zion Young’s projection lags behind other top edge options for Buffalo Bills
ESPN’s Aaron Schatz recently published an article that projected the production of many of the NFL Draft’s top edge prospects using a tool they call the SackSEER, which projects how many sacks a player could record in his first five seasons. The SackSEER had a poor projection for Missouri pass rusher Zion Young, projecting him to get just 16.5 sacks in his first five seasons.
“Young comes out as the most likely to disappoint of the potential first-round prospects,” Schatz wrote on Sunday. “His collegiate sack production was middling, with only 6.5 sacks in his senior year and just five combined sacks in the three seasons before that. His 4.70-second 40 is also fairly average.”
Young had the lowest projection of any first-round prospect according to ESPN’s consensus Big Board, where Young ranks No. 30. It's worth pointing out that ESPN's board doesn’t see Texas A&M’s Cashius Howell as a first-round lock, ranking him as the No. 45 overall prospect, who was projected at 16 sacks in his first five seasons.
Still, Young’s projections are a red flag on his profile, and they aren’t without reason, based on his college production, as Schatz points out. Still, by comparison, Howell was wildly productive in college, but his concerning measurements at the NFL Combine certainly played a role in his poor projections by ESPN and the SackSEER.
The SackSEER projected totals for most of the pass rusher class. Here is how some notable Bills targets in the first round fared according to the model:
- Clemson’s T.J. Parker: 23 sacks
- Miami’s Akheem Mesidor: 21 sacks
- UCF’s Malachi Lawrence: 18.5 sacks
Of course, the model isn’t going to perfectly project these players’ careers. Young could very well exceed his own expectations in the NFL. After all, ESPN’s pro comps for Young included Seattle’s Uchena Nwosu, who has carved out a successful career with 34.5 sacks over eight seasons. Injuries have hampered his production more than his skillset, though, to be fair.
Nonetheless, if the Bills are interested in drafting an edge rusher with their first-round pick later this month, they’ll want someone who can be productive in limited usage, spelling Bradley Chubb and Greg Rousseau. That’s where players like Parker, Mesidor and Lawrence instantly look more promising, as they carry over production from college and project more cleanly to the next level.
In that respect, the Bills have extra information to consider as their time on the clock draws nearer.