The Buffalo Bills are officially in the 2025 NFL playoffs. They clinched it at the end in Week 16, with their win over the Browns and ensuing loss by the Colts on Monday Night Football to the 49ers. With that cleared up, Buffalo's lone remaining interest in this regular season is the matter of seeding. With that, we kick off Week 17.
The #1 seed, somehow, is still in play for the Bills. They sit just one complete game behind the two leaders. It's no easy path, nor guarantee, but it is there and not only possible, but plausible. Here's the picture.
AFC Playoff Race
West | East | South | North |
|---|---|---|---|
12-3 Broncos (1) | 12-3 Patriots (2) | 11-4 Jaguars (3) | 9-6 Steelers (4) |
11-4 Chargers (5) | 11-4 Bills (6) | 10-5 Texans (7) | 7-8 Ravens |
6-9 Chiefs | 6-9 Dolphins | 8-7 Colts | 5-10 Bengals |
2-13 Raiders | 3-12 Jets | 3-12 Titans | 3-10 Browns |
The Colts' loss on MNF to the 49ers secured playoff spots for the Chargers, Bills, and Jaguars, but things can get better. The AFC East title is still available as long as the Patriots drop either of their two remaining games.
The #1 seed is on the table, with a few friendly results. If the Patriots, Broncos, Jaguars, and Chargers each lose just one of their remaining games, Buffalo gets the first round bye with a successful final two weeks. The dream dies with a Chargers and Broncos win this week, as they play each other in Week 18, and cannot both lose then. There are some tiebreakers in play now, so here's how they work.
The NFL's tiebreaking procedures for seeding Wild Card teams in the playoffs are listed below:
1) Head-to-head
2) Conference record
3) Common games record (if 4+ common games)
4) Strength of victory (SoV)
5) Strength of schedule (SoS)
Tiebreakers 6 and beyond can no longer apply this season. With advanced tiebreakers losing their merit, some games cannot impact the Bills in any way. For those lucky few matchups, we can simply ignore them.
Christmas Day - Thursday
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders - 1:00pm
This game should have been an NFC-defining one, but the season is a fickle foe. The Cowboys (6-8-1) and Commanders (4-11) are both eliminated from contention instead. Buffalo does not play either of these two franchises, nor can they impact the Bills remaining tiebreakers.
Interest: No Impact
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings - 4:30pm
Another matchup that could have rocked the NFC, but no longer matters much. The Lions (8-7) aren't out mathematically but their hopes are slim. The Vikings (7-8) are finished. This game, too, cannot alter the Bills' fate in any way.
Interest: No Impact
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs - 8:15pm
With their season over, and the losses of Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew, the Chiefs (6-9) have nothing to play for. The Broncos (12-3) are coming off a shellacking by the Jaguars and need this win to help secure the #1 spot. For the Bills, Denver needs to drop one game, and hold no tiebreaker over Buffalo. Unlikely as it is, the Bills should still root for the Chiefs in this one.
Interest: Chiefs win
Saturday Schedule
Houston Texans @ L.A. Chargers - 4:30pm
The Chargers (11-4) beat Buffalo on tiebreakers, so a loss to beat them on record is necessary. The Texans (10-5) are able to threaten Buffalo for seeding if they tie the Bills' record, but rooting for them this week is important in the hunt for the #1 seed. Reminder: If the Chargers and Broncos both win in week 17, the Bills get locked out of the #1 seed in the AFC playoff picture.
Interest: Texans win
Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers - 8:00pm
Keeping the North fighting can only be good for the rest of the playoff contenders in the AFC. With the Ravens (7-8) on the verge of elimination, they need this win to keep the Steelers from resting ahead of the playoffs. The Packers (9-5-1) can't afford to let that happen, but the Bills don't care what Green Bay wants.
Interest: Ravens win
Early Sunday Window
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins - 1:00pm
It helps the Bills' strength of victory, marginally, to have the Buccaneers (7-8) win, but it's highly unlikely that comes into play. The Dolphins (6-9), however, will be rebuilding in 2026; Worsening their draft picks with a win would be a nice bonus on Sunday.
Interest: Dolphins win
New England Patriots @ New York Jets - 1:00pm
If the Patriots (12-3) lose either of their remaining games, both AFC East derbies, then the Bills can sneak into the AFC East crown by winning their final two games. That is the critical step in the Bills' approach to the #1 seed. The Jets (3-12) have no good players to play, nor any reason to win, but Buffalo must root for them anyway.
Interest: Jets win
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns - 1:00pm
The Steelers (9-6) cannot catch the Bills if Buffalo were to win their division, nor can they make it as a Wild Card team. Still, a loss to the Browns (3-12) would further worsen their unimpressive standing. With the Ravens' only hope for the AFC playoff picture resting on the Steelers losing, keeping both teams fighting until the end can help Buffalo in case they play the AFC North in the playoffs.
Interest: Browns win
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts - 1:00pm
The Colts (8-7) can no longer unseat the Bills. The Jaguars (11-4) will beat the Bills on tiebreakers, so need to lose one more game to give the Bills a chance at the #1 seed in the AFC. As long as that is a possibility, we must root for it.
Interest: Colts win
New Orleans Saints @ Tennessee Titans - 1:00pm
This matchup has little impact on the AFC, but the Titans (3-12) losing to the Saints (5-10) vaguely worsens the standing of their division rivals. For SoV and SoS reasons, as irrelevant as they may be, root for the Saints.
Interest: Saints win
Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers - 1:00pm
This NFC-NFC game has little-to-no impact, but the Panthers (8-7) win would give the Bills an SoV boost. The #1 seeded Seahawks (12-3) do not care, and it's unlikely to happen anyway.
Interest: Panthers win
Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals - 1:00pm
There is not much benefit to rooting for the Bengals (5-10) at this point in the season, and the NFC-residing Cardinals (3-12) can do no harm. For very limited SoV reasons, may as well root for the Bengals.
Interest: Bengals win
Late Sunday Window
New York Giants @ Las Vegas Raiders - 4:05
The battle for the #1 seed is won by the loser of this heinous matchup. Be it the Giants (2-13) or Raiders (2-13), someone has to win. The Bills get a vague bit of SoS help with a Raiders loss, so that's what we go with.
Interest: Giants win
Buffalo Bills @ Philadelphia Eagles - 4:25pm
The Broncos loss on Sunday opened the door somewhat for the Bills (11-4) and their dreams of the #1 spot. If they want to secure it, they have little choice but to win out. The results Buffalo needs don't have to come all at once, but they must win both remaining games to secure it. At the very least, they cannot expect the Patriots to lose both games, and allow Buffalo to lose to the Eagles (10-5) without it costing them the AFC East race.
Philly doesn't have much to play for- They could move up to the #2 seed in the NFC, but they're expected entirely to stay at #3, with Carolina a distant 4th and the Bears a comfortable game ahead. They certainly care, but not to the point of notable risk.
The choice in this game goes without saying, but the importance of this win couldn't be overstated.
Interest: Bills win
Sunday Night Football
Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers - 8:20pm
Neither the Bears (11-4) nor the 49ers (11-4) could have an impact on the AFC race now. Sunday Night Football will be a chance to actually enjoy a quality, meaningful game without it disturbing the Bills. Root for good football, and two of the NFL's finest going head-to-head.
Interest: No impact
Monday Night Football
L.A. Rams @ Atlanta Falcons - 8:15pm
Buffalo lost to the Falcons (6-9), who were beaten by several other competitors in the AFC race. The Rams (11-4) have beaten just about everyone they've faced. A Rams win doesn't help the Bills, but a Falcons win could, possibly. Root for L.A.