Gone seem the days where the Buffalo Bills controlled their own destiny heading into the AFC playoffs. Now, Josh Allen and company are elbow-deep in a fight for a playoff spot.
With Week 13 in the books, the team needs help to move up out of the 7th seed and slip into something more comfortable. They're making moves, but there's more to be done. We've done the work for you; Here's your Week 14 rooting interests.
AFC Playoff Race
East | West | South | North |
|---|---|---|---|
11-2 Patriots (1) | 10-2 Broncos (2) | 8-4 Jaguars (3) | 6-6 Ravens (4) |
8-4 Bills (7) | 8-4 Chargers (5) | 8-4 Colts (6) | 6-6 Steelers |
5-7 Dolphins | 6-6 Chiefs | 7-5 Texans | 4-8 Bengals |
3-9 Jets | 2-10 Raiders | 1-11 Titans | 3-9 Browns |
As you can see, the battle for wild card spots is wide open, and the Bills are far from secure. The Texans are one win away from unseating the Bills as the 7th seed, but there is hope. Buffalo remains no worse than tied with all but two of the other playoff teams, and just 2.5 games shy of the #1 seed, which stays the goal until it is no longer available. The floor is not out from beneath them.
There will likely not be a clear-cut winner and loser for every tie at season's end, but the NFL has tiebreaking procedures for seeding wild cards.
1) Head-to-head
2) Conference record
3) Common games record (if 4+ common games)
4) Strength of victory (SoV)
5) Strength of schedule (SoS)
Rarely, if ever, do tiebreakers 6-11 or beyond apply.
Thursday Night Football
Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions - 8:15pm
Both these historic franchises are coming off Thanksgiving Thursday losses, heading into a second-consecutive mid-week matchup. For one, it will be a knife in the back of their playoff hopes. For the other, perhaps new life. For Buffalo, neither really matters.
The Lions (7-5) have beaten the Ravens, Browns, and Bengals, lost to the Chiefs, and will play the Steelers. The Cowboys (6-5-1) have lost to the Broncos, beaten the Chiefs, and will play the Chargers. Dallas' win over KC makes a Cowboys win more acceptable to Bills fans for SoS reasons.
Interest: Cowboys win
Early Sunday window
Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns - 1:00pm
If the Titans (1-11) and the Browns (3-9) are at the bottom of the heap. Tennessee are already eliminated from playoff contention and the Browns are as good as eliminated themselves. Cleveland played the AFC North twice, obviously, as well as the Patriots and their upcoming game against the Bills. Meanwhile the Colts faced the AFC South, Buffalo's direct competition for seeding, and the Patriots, Broncos, Chargers, and Chiefs. Strength of victory and of schedule dictate they must lose.
Interest: Browns win
Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons - 1:00pm
The Seahawks (9-3) have played and beaten the Steelers, Texans, and Jaguars, with the Colts remaining. The Falcons (4-8) have beaten Buffalo, but lost to the Colts and Patriots. For strength of victory reasons, root for the Seahawks.
Interest: Seahawks win
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars - 1:00pm
This divisional matchup is one of the most critical games remaining in the AFC playoff fight. Who would believe that sentence, if we'd written it three months ago? The Jaguars (8-4) and the Colts (8-4) are engaged in a back and forth battle for the AFC South title, with the loser expecting to make the playoffs regardless. Somehow, these two likely determine the makeup of the entire AFC postseason.
Without irony, the two teams tied with the Bills playing each other is a boon. One has to win, yes, and take a sudden and powerful lead on the South. The other must drop, coupled with a Bills win, moving them up the charts and away from the danger zone. A tie puts them both behind Buffalo with a win; Let's be as realistic as we are hopeful.
The AFC South played the AFC West this season, so a win by either team affects strength of schedule the same for any of the 8 teams involved. Inside and outside of that matter, the Colts have both played and lost to more of the AFC competitors than the Jaguars. For SoV and then SoS reasons, the Jaguars are the team to root for.
Interest: Jaguars win
Washington Commanders @ Minnesota Vikings - 1:00pm
Two NFC teams on the verge of elimination, this hardly seems like the matchup for Buffalo to stress about. If you feel that way, you're correct. SoV an SoS are the only ways this might matter. A Commanders (3-9) win benefits the Broncos and Chiefs, and harms the Chargers. A Vikings (4-8) win benefits the Steelers, Chargers, and Ravens. Tough choice, but root for Washington.
Interest: Commanders win
Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills - 1:00pm
As if you needed to be told, the Buffalo Bills (8-4) are the team to root for. A win over the now-threatening Bengals (4-8) is not only helpful, but possibly mandatory if Buffalo intends to stay in playoff position.
Interest: Bills win
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 1:00pm
NFC vs. NFC, usual rules apply. A Buccaneers (7-5) win benefits the Bills and Patriots, and harms the Texans. A Saints (2-10) win benefits the Bills and Patriots only. Buffalo lost the head-to-head against the Texans, making that tiebreaker moot. For once, there is no reason to root for either team.
Interest: Any result
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens - 1:00pm
The Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6) are tied with the Baltimore Ravens (6-6) for the AFC North title, with the Ravens having the edge. Buffalo has head-to head wins over both teams, and a two-game lead on each side. The winner of this game takes a strong lead over the other, with a rematch in Week 18.
The tiebreakers and strength of schedule/victory margins don't affect Buffalo in any significant way, so let's talk preferred matchups. Buffalo may have to face the winner of the AFC North in the postseason- Is Pittsburgh or Baltimore a better matchup for a defensively hampered Bills team? The answer seems clear after last week.
Interest: Steelers win
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets - 1:00pm
The Miami Dolphins (5-7) are tough, but too late. The N.Y. Jets (3-9) are all but out of the fight. The Bills strength of schedule is unaffected by divisional interplay, but strength of victory could apply down the line. Buffalo is 1-1 against the Dolphins, and 1-0 against the Jets for now. For S.O.V and worsening draft picks, root for the Jets this weekend.
Interest: Jets win
Late Sunday window
Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders - 4:05pm
As we have stated many times in this series, the #1 seed is the goal for as long as it's available. The Denver Broncos (10-2) are one of the two teams in the fight notably ahead of Buffalo. The Raiders (2-10) are eliminated from playoff contention. Simply put, this is an obvious pick.
Interest: Raiders win
L.A. Rams @ Arizona Cardinals - 4:25pm
The powerhouse L.A. Rams (9-3) have beaten the Texans, Ravens, Jaguars, and Colts this season. The Cardinals (3-9) have lost to the Colts and Jaguars, with the Texans upcoming. A clear choice in this one.
Interest:
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers - 4:25pm
This NFC North clash isn't very important for Buffalo, but we have to root for somebody. The Bears (9-3) lead the NFC, somehow, and the Packers (8-3) could steal their spot with a win. The first tiebreaker to matter is strength of victory, then of schedule, amongst AFC playoff hopefuls. The NFC North faces the AFC North this season; In those games, both beat the Steelers but the Packers have yet to face the Ravens- The Bears lost that game. If the Ravens lose to Green Bay later this season, this could matter.
Interest: Packers win
Sunday Night Football
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs - 8:20pm
The Chiefs (6-6) are suddenly unlikely playoff hopefuls. The Texans (7-5) are the sole team behind Buffalo who could unseat them this week; The head-to-head loss of two weeks ago did serious damage to Buffalo. For the second time in the last three weeks, the Bills must root for the Chiefs.
Interest: Chiefs win
Monday Night Football
Philadelphia Eagles @ L.A. Chargers - 8:15pm
There are very few NFC-AFC crossovers in Week 14, but Monday Night Football is a big one. The Eagles (8-4) are fighting for the NFC lead after losing to the Bears on Black Friday. The L.A. Chargers (8-4) are tied with the Bills in the AFC Wild Card race. Easy picking, but a very tough game. The rules are clear, NFC over AFC.