The Buffalo Bills and the New Orleans Saints are at opposite ends of the NFL spectrum to start Week 4, and there's no secret as to why. It may have taken a minor miracle in Week 1, but Buffalo is still undefeated and have been rolling ever since.
Despite injuries, the Bills are playing dominating football. The Saints, on the other hand, are 0-3, coming off one of the most embarrassing blowouts of the decade. So, how does this game play out?
Prediction #1 - James Cook handles things
It might be unpopular, but good football is often boring and repetitive. There have been a lot of complaints in the past two weeks that the Josh Allen fans know and love is playing conservatively. It's been two weeks of simple gameplans, standard plays, and limited heroics. Against a team like the Saints, in the midst of a smooth start to the season, that isn't set to change.
James Cook has 355 scrimmage yards this season, and over 100 in every game played. His usage has him with the second-most rush yards in the NFL through three weeks. Against Baltimore, most of his yards came through the air, but against the Jets and Dolphins Cook simply ran the ball all day. It's not exhilarating. Aside from a freak 44-yard burner touchdown in Week 2, it hasn't been splashy.
Still, Cook has four touchdowns this season, tied for the most in the league, despite the bread and butter. He's averaging 5.4 yards per rush, and has caught all eight of his targets. He's been the picture of consistency, and the crucible of the offense when Josh Allen isn't hurdling defenders and setting records.
Expect James Cook to be the focus of this game, and expect to yawn a few times. It's good, efficient football, and it's what gets Buffalo to the playoffs and beyond. Not giving away the best of their playbook in Week 4 is just icing.
Prediction #2 - Buffalo shuts down New Orleans pass attack
The Buffalo Bills are allowing only 131.3 passing yards per game, second best in the NFL. To add further nuance, we'll highlight that two of Buffalo's opponents trailed by double digit scores for large portions of their games, and still couldn't pass against them effectively. The New Orleans Saints are not an improvement on those teams.
The Saints struggle to maintain a pocket, and have neither the patience nor the talent to let plays develop beyond 2/3 seconds. It's been an issue for them in every game this season, and this is no exception. Buffalo will be able to get pressure quickly, even without blitzing. Even when they don't, Spencer Rattler will make quick throws to stay on-script.
All Buffalo has to do to shut down the Saints' passing game is play their conventional zone defense and let both their safeties stay in coverage. Buffalo knows this, and will take advantage on Sunday. Expect the Saints to try and beat the Bills 32st-ranked run defense, their most notable weakness. All this adds up to a ground game for the Saints, as much by choice as by necessity.
Prediction #3 - Final score
Truly, this game is one of the season's most predictable. The Bills have an obvious weakness, as do the Saints, and in attacking each other they facilitate the same result. The unfortunate part is that New Orleans doesn't have the option to change it up when things stop working. Buffalo does, and will.
The moment Buffalo starts to pull away, the Saints come out throwing, and fall deeper into the hole. Clear cut, and decidedly uneven. This one belongs to the Bills.