The Buffalo Bills are visiting the New England Patriots this Sunday, with the opportunity to take the AFC East on the line. With a win, Buffalo moves to just one game shy of the tie, but a loss eliminates the Bills from title contention. It's go big or go home for the Bills. But what happens next? When the kickoff comes and things move sharply in the dirt, how does it all play out? These predictions are here to get you set.
The Bills have the rare privilege of being a winning team that New England has beaten this season; The 7-6 Carolina Panthers are the only other team with that dubious honour. The Patriots have played the easiest schedule in the NFL, by every metric. It is, of course, not their fault.
The Pats were a 4-win team last season, and have earned a last-place schedule. Buffalo themselves have not exactly had an unfair ride, but still managed to lose to two teams currently owning losing records.
Prediction #1 - Stefon Diggs doesn't double dip
Yes, the Patriots are a good team. The Buffalo Bills discovered as much in Week 5, when they were beaten, albeit narrowly. The Patriots passed all over a bewildered Bills secondary en route to a game winning field goal in the final 15 seconds. The Patriots passed well in open space and ran well in the red zone- It's a telling script, and one the Bills will prepare for.
Stefon Diggs was the focal point, in some sense of karmic justice made by someone who doesn't quite understand karma. His 10 catches for 146 yards, including a critical catch on their game-winning drive, were half the Patriots' entire offense on the day. Drake Maye was solid, but it was Diggs who kept them moving time and time again. It won't happen a second time.
The Bills could be without top cornerback Christian Benford on the day, but Diggs has been shut down by worse secondaries much less familiar than this one- See his final season in Buffalo. His role in Week 5 will be fresh in the minds of Buffalo's coaches, and stopping him is their primary goal. He is an excellent receiver who will get his share of targets; Cutting him off quickly is in the cards for Sunday. Expect the Pats to go to the run game early.
Prediction #2 - Red zone to end zone
Statistically, the New England Patriots are the NFL's worst red zone defense. The Buffalo Bills' red zone offense, however, is amongst the league's best. No team allows a higher rate of touchdown scoring in the red zone than the Pats, and Buffalo are accomplished in this. The Bills offense seemed to be it's own worst enemy in Week 5, but it has found a way forward in recent weeks.
A dual-threat quarterback in Josh Allen, a stunning open-space rusher in James Cook, and one of the best scoring run games in the league. The cliche goes 'run to set up the pass', but it holds some truth. Punching it in shouldn't be a problem for a team that scores at will in the red zone, and has options with whom to do it. If running doesn't work, the Patriots defense gives up passing touchdowns at a higher rate than any other team.
Prediction #3 - Final score
Truly, this is one of the best games remaining this season. The Buffalo Bills, with their powerhouse offense and streaky defense, need a win to take the fight to their division rivals. All the Patriots have to do it win this one game to take the AFC East and prove they're not a paper tiger after all.
But winning against a competitive division rival twice in one season is difficult. The Patriots played a Bills team that was sleepwalking through much of their first meeting, and squeaked through. If Buffalo can come out swinging, and force the Pats to play from behind, there is no reason to believe they don't win this game.