Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs - Final Score Prediction

The Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes story continues, as two of the league's best quarterbacks go head-to-head once again. Your regularly scheduled battle between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs takes place in Orchard Park. The rolling 7-2 Bills aim to play spoiler to the 9-0 Chiefs' perfect season.

Prediction #1 - Dawson Knox Goes Off

The Bills will be missing both star rookie WR Keon Coleman and top tight end Dalton Kincaid. The absence of a strong physical player over the middle isn't going to keep Buffalo down long, as TE Dawson Knox has proven capable of filling that role. In his final two seasons as a starter, Knox averaged 48.5 receptions, 550+ yards, and 7.5 TDs. With the introduction of Kincaid, Knox took a back seat, but he's still more than capable of significant production. With his reduced workload thus far this season, he's fresh.

Buffalo has leant on their tight ends to beat the Chiefs multiple times over the last few seasons, and this is no exception. The increased snap count for Knox should provide plenty of opportunities to do more than just block. Whilst the Chiefs' secondary could cause trouble for the Bills receivers, they do not currently have a player fit to match up against a traditional tight end. Dawson Knox can be counted on for several short-area targets, as well as some punishing runs against the smaller defensive backs.

Prediction #2 - Chiefs Get Aggressive on 4th Down

Whilst the Buffalo Bills are assuredly worse off in the injury column, one late surprise might just bend things in their favour. Kansas City lost kicker Harrison Butker to a meniscus injury late in the week, and have had to sign Spencer Shrader off the New York Jets practice squad on Thursday. The inclusion of a new kicker on such short notice, especially as KC travels to Buffalo, brings a new challenge to the NFL's reigning champs. Without their trusted kicker and the time to get the new one comfortable, assessing what he can do, they can be expected to go with what they know: An aggressive approach to fourth downs.

This is a boon for the Buffalo Bills in only one way; They have an informational advantage. Besides that, the Chiefs have a whopping 88.9% conversion rate on 4th downs in 2024. The only team in the league with a better rate is the Bills themselves (91.7%), and that's far from a help on defense. Buffalo allows fourth-down conversions at a rate of only 40.9%, fifth-best in the NFL. That may be some help, but Kansas City routinely finds creative ways to beat expected defenses in short-yard situations, out of both conventional and unconventional formations. The Bills defense will need to be ready for this specific challenge.

Prediction #3 - Final Score

Both sides will have their work cut out for them. The Bills are missing several important pieces on offense, and Kansas City has flatly been average all season offensively. Both defenses have been largely exceptional, and the Chiefs especially seem to have benefitted from good fortune to keep their record unspoiled. Still, all things must end.

The Chiefs will keep this game close, Buffalo unable to pull away, but a physical offense that can punish their opposition at the line of scrimmage makes the difference.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills hand Kansas City their first loss in a tight 24-21 struggle.

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