The Miami Dolphins did just as Buffalo Bills fans expected them to do in free agency. On Monday, it was announced that the Dolphins and former Green Bay Packers quarterback Malik Willis agreed to terms to make him the new starter under center in Miami.
While Bills Mafia could see the move coming from a mile away, what with all the Green Bay connections that now exist in South Beach, the biggest question was how it would look financially for the Bills’ southern-most rival. Most expected Willis to sign a similar deal to what Justin Fields got last offseason with the Jets, a two-year deal with front-loaded money.
That’s not what Miami did, as the contract details reveal a questionable plan of action at the sport’s most important position.
Dolphins new deal with QB Malik Willis should have Bills Mafia grinning
As was previously announced, Willis and the Dolphins agreed on a three-year, $67.5 million contract. NFL Insider Tom Pelissero reported the finer details of the contract on Monday that should have Bills Mafia giddy about the possible ramifications for Miami’s future.
According to Pelissero, the Dolphins are paying Willis $45 million of that $67.5 million over the next two seasons. He gets a $22.5M signing bonus instead of a beefy salary in 2026, but is also fully guaranteed his 2027 salary at $21.5M. Willis’s cap hit in 2026 is set to be just $8.75 million, which is an immediate win for Miami as they retool their roster to fit new head coach Jeff Hafley’s vision.
However, the Dolphins lack the out that the Jets gave themselves with Fields. The Dolphins are already underwater financially because of their last quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa. The franchise announced ahead of agreeing to terms with Willis that they’d be moving on from Tagovailoa, leaving the franchise with $99.2 million in dead cap money, an NFL record, spread across the next two seasons.
That’s a pain that will linger as new general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan gets started on the rebuild in Miami. It only compounds if this experiment with Willis doesn’t pan out.
While Willis has proven over the past two seasons that he’s worth a look as a potential starting quarterback, he hasn’t yet proven himself to be a franchise quarterback. He’s far from a sure thing, having thrown just 89 passes over those two seasons. After studying his tape, Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner recently said that only 28 of those passes were true drop-back throws. While Warner didn’t suggest that Willis is undeserving of a shot because of that, he did caution the team that would be willing to throw $25+ million per year at Willis.
Unlike the Jets and Fields, the Dolphins lack a comfortable out if Willis quickly proves that he isn’t the franchise guy who can pull Miami out of their perpetual pit of misery near the bottom of the AFC East. They are effectively glued to him through the 2027 season.
That’s not to say that Miami can’t replace Willis next offseason if things go poorly. Their current situation with Tagovailoa is proof enough of that. However, Tagovailoa already put them in a deep hole, and if Willis isn’t proactive in pulling Miami out of it, he could find himself digging that hole even deeper. Miami is putting a lot of eggs in the Willis basket, and from the Mafia’s vantage point, the entire situation is primed to blow up in the Dolphins’ face.