There is a common saying when it comes to NFL divisional rivalries: "it's hard to beat the same team three times in one season."
Every time division rivals square off in the postseason, when one team has won both previous matchups, the broadcast crew makes sure to mention how difficult it is for one team to beat the same team three times in one season.
There is certainly some truth to that, and it's leading Bills fans to wonder: could a loss to the Patriots actually be a good thing or a bad thing?
Why Bills fans should worried if Buffalo loses to Patriots in Week 15
It's an interesting question. Obviously, a win for Buffalo would be a good thing. If the Bills win, they would stay alive in the race to win the division, and put themselves in the driver's seat for the No. 5 seed as the top AFC Wild Card team.
On the other hand, even with a win, the Bills probably aren't winning the division, as they would still be behind New England. And even with a loss, the Bills could still finish 12-5 and very likely earn the No. 5 seed.
And anyways, how much does seeding matter to the Bills? Right now, the No. 5 seed would play the 4th seed; which will more than likely be either a desperate Baltimore team or a desperate Pittsburgh team whose coach and quarterbacks are trying to prove that they can still be contributors.
The No. 6 seed, however, would more than likely play the winner of the AFC South. That could be the Jaguars or the surging Houston Texans, whose elite defense already bested Josh Allen once this season.
Then there's the question of New England. The Patriots are Buffalo's biggest challenge in the AFC, and if Buffalo is going to reach the Super Bowl, they will have to get through the Patriots to do it.
Which of course begs the question, is it better for Buffalo to lose now, to give themselves a better chance of beating New England for a third time if they meet in the playoffs?
Despite what every broadcast crew likes to mention, the facts say the Bills should be hoping to win this weekend.
John McMullen, writing for Sports Illustrated in 2023, found that when division rivals play a team they've already beaten twice in the playoffs, they win nearly half the time.
"Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, there have now been 24 occasions of teams meeting for the third time in the postseason after one team won the first two matchups," McMullen wrote. "the “sweeping” team is 15-9, a solid. 625 winning percentage."
Since his article in 2023, there has been one more occurance, when the Eagles beat the Giants for a third time in January of 2023. That means the "sweeping team" is 16-9. Bad news for Buffalo, if they were to lose tomorrow.
A win over New England now however, would also boost Buffalo's confidence going in to a potential third game against their rivals, should they meet in the playoffs.