The Seattle Seahawks showed the NFL world how it's done en route to the Super Bowl, laying out a blueprint for others to follow. One key piece of their puzzle is having arguably the best receiver in the game in the form of Jaxson Smith-Njigba. Barring a blockbuster trade, Buffalo Bills general manager Brandon Beane isn’t going to add anything close to that.
The Bills will have a little salary cap space to play with and could go after one of the offseason’s hottest free agents: Indianapolis Colts receiver Alec Pierce. Though several have been urging the Bills to make Pierce a priority, the Bills may be better served staying away from him.
Top 3 reasons Bills should steer clear of Colts WR Alec Pierce in free agency
1. Pierce’s price is way too high
The biggest factor that could keep the Bills out of the running for Pierce is his next contract. Given his production in the past, it might seem more logical for him to fall in the $13-$16 million-per-season range. Unfortunately for the Bills, that number is likely to be much larger.
Most estimates have Pierce coming in at around $20-$23 million per season. Given how many suitors he is likely to have, that number could jump as high as $30 million per season. Those are numbers the Bills cannot hope to meet unless Pierce is the only move they make.
With substantial holes on defense, Pierce is likely too expensive to take a serious run at. If they can land him in the aforementioned $13-$16 million range, it would be a home run. That just doesn’t seem realistic given the hype Pierce has behind him.
2. Pierce’s numbers are misleading
At first glance, there is a lot to love about Pierce. At 6’3”, 211 lbs, he has the size needed to be a top receiver in the league. He is also just 25 years old, so he presumably has his best football ahead of him.
His numbers jump out, too. Sure, he had just 47 catches b,ut managed to stretch those catches into 1,003 yards. His 21.3 yards per catch mark is one of the best in the league, indicating just how much of a deep threat he has been for the Indianapolis Colts.
But the thing that jumps out for the wrong reason is his target success rate. He converted just 54.8% of his targets in 2025, a career-high. Amon-Ra St. Brown converted 68% of his targets. Justin Jefferson, in an off year, was just under 60%. AJ Brown had what may have been the worst season of his career and hit on 64% of his targets.
What is the reason for such a low conversion rate? Pierce isn’t a burner, and working in tighter spaces tends to be more challenging. His route running is still a work in progress as well, something that could help him create more easy throws for his quarterback. For a receiver that could make more than $25 million per season, that number is too low.
3. Pierce's yards/catch doesn’t feel sustainable
The yards per catch numbers jump off the page. Knowing that he did most of his damage with Daniel Jones, it only stands to reason that he could potentially explode while playing with a perennial MVP candidate like Josh Allen.
That said, it is rarely as simple as running deep and getting over the top of the defense. The elite receivers, like those mentioned above, are diverse enough that they can punish defenses at all three levels. Looking at the low reception numbers from Pierce seems to show a receiver that is still somewhat one-dimensional.
What happens when Pierce becomes the singular focus of a defensive coordinator hoping to stop the Bills' passing attack? He will get more attention, but can he work through that to become a more consistent, reliable target? That remains to be seen.
Pierce too much of a risk with Bills' current cap situation
If the Bills were among the league leaders in cap space, taking a shot at Pierce would be a welcome luxury. As it stands, the Bills will have some space to work with, but they must be smart with that space to improve the club and get them over the hump.
Pierce’s anticipated annual salary is just something the Bills can’t take that kind of risk on. He is certainly a good, young player, but he isn’t the kind of receiver that the Bills can afford to invest most of their current resources in.