The Buffalo Bills visit the Atlanta Falcons in Week 6 for Monday Night Football's double-header. Atlanta is 2-2 coming off an early bye week, now fresh and ready for action. The Bills need to beat them to get back on track after last week's loss to the New England Patriots. But how do they attack?
It's difficult, working off only a few weeks of information, but there's enough data to find some soft spots. As much as the Bills would love to cruise back into winning, there's work to be done if they expect to beat these Falcons. They're not exactly the Jets.
3 weaknesses that Bills must attack vs. Falcons
Red zone offense
The Atlanta Falcons have an average offense. It won't 'wow' you often, but it gets the job done. The unit is average at passing, with 7.2 yards per pass, and they're average at running, with 4.3 rush yards per attempt. Smack dab in the middle of the league. Average.
The NFL is rife with scoring opportunity. Every play could turn into a touchdown, in a thousand different ways. When a team has an average offense, you expect average scoring.
Despite this, the Falcons are one of the league's worst scoring offenses. They average only 19 points per game, comprised of only 1.8 touchdowns. Those are some of the league's worst marks. Inversely, Buffalo averages top 3 numbers in both those areas, with double the touchdowns and over 30 points per game.
Why does Atlanta's bread-and-butter offense, averaging the 7th-most yards in the NFL, fall short? Simply, they struggle in the red zone. This team has a dismal 46.15% red zone TD percentage, 7th-worst in the league.
The Atlanta Falcons know Michael Penix Jr. can't pass in those tight windows, part of his three lowly touchdowns. That is why we finally find an exceptional facet of their offense; Not one of skill, but volume. The Falcons run the ball an average of 31.8 times per game, second most in the league to only the Buffalo Bills themselves.
It's a reflex, one that is both symptomatic of, and a cause for, their red zone scoring struggles. In Buffalo's case, it is borne of a balanced offense that plays with a lead often. For Atlanta, it's a highlighter taken to their biggest problem. Buffalo has to stack the box and prevent the run game working in the red zone to stop them turning yards into touchdowns, and highlight their next problem.
Kicking
The Buffalo Bills are not one to talk, they have had their share of kicking issues in recent years, but they do average the third-most points per game on kicking, from both extra points and field goals, with 9. The Atlanta Falcons are hot on their heels with 8.5; None too shabby, and good enough for the top-10. Tragedy strikes when you add context.
The Falcons own the second-worst field goal percentage in the NFL, making only 75% of their attempts. That scoring output is based entirely on their averaging 3 field goal attempts per game. The Falcons current kicker, John Parker Romo, is 1/3 on attempts of 40+ yards this season.
QB mobility
Michael Penix Jr. is absolutely an athlete. One thing he isn't, so far this season, is a runner. Penix is 21st in the NFL in rushing attempts this season, with only 13, and only has 30 yards to show for it. The Falcons have a solid offensive line, but Penix hasn't offered the mobility and scramble risk to force defenses to play contain.
With an all-out rush implemented by a Buffalo Bills defensive line that could have Ed Oliver back, the Bills can start to see results without worrying about spying him as a runner or giving him time in the pocket as they attempt to contain him. The dogs can simply go after the ball, nothing more complicated than that. When it comes to pass-rushing, the Bills have 10 players with at least a half sack so far this season. This is a prime opportunity to take Penix down.