Derrick Henry’s injury history
Derrick Henry is by all accounts a physical freak of nature. He has been remarkably durable throughout his career, and his injury history is surprisingly limited. Draft Sharks Injury Guide rates Henry in their most durable category historically, but also rates him as a “Very High Risk” for a chance of injury in 2023, projecting him to likely miss multiple games.
"“a running back with 370 or more carries during the regular season will usually suffer either a major injury or loss of effectiveness the following year,”"
While Henry was not above 370 carries last season, he was dangerously close. And the last time he totaled a workload as high as he did in 2022, he suffered a lis franc injury the following season (2021). Lis franc injuries are foot injuries with incredibly high re-injury rates.
The combination of his age, the number of total carries, and his workload in 2022 make him an extraordinarily high risk for injury in 2023, and that doesn’t even begin to take into account the third reason the Bills should be wary of trading for Henry: